2010 Box-Office Predix - Let the guessing begin!

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 3:25 pm

Pretty much everyone agrees TOY STORY 3 is not only going to be number one at the box-office, but will probably make more in its second week than most summer films make in their first week.

Given how strong the Mon-Thurs grosses have been and with nothing taking away the young audience and not anything all that strong taking away the adult audience, second weekend will probably be between $60-65 m. This one is definitely going to surpass FINDING NEMO as the highest grossing Pixar film, but it is not clear weather it will be able to pass the $400 m mark.

KNIGHT AND DAY seems to have not benefitted from the mid-week start. I doubt it will make more than $20 m on its opening weekend, and probably limp to $60 m overall.

GROWN-UPS has been getting pretty nasty reviews even for a Sandler production. It seems he is losing his box-office draw. He is not done for yet, but he definitely does not have the same loyal fanbase he used to. Like many of his past films, this one will probably open around $30 m, and then maybe limp past $100 m.

So far there have been only two true success stories of summer: IRON MAN 2 and TOY STORY 3. Even the former seems to have underperformed from expectations.

ECLIPSE, THE LAST AIRBENDER, SALT, DESPICAPBLE ME, and of course INCEPTION seem to be the last chances for true blockbusters this summer.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:17 pm

Zahveed wrote:I'm going to be honest. As a little kid growing up in the American Southeast suburbs of the 90's, I didn't know the difference between the martial arts - but I think kids are naturally ignorant.

And that's what Hollywood banks on.

Most kids do not know the difference between karate and kung-fu, but it is not like one is more popular than the other. It is not as if calling it THE KUNG-FU KID was somehow going to keep people from seeing. In fact, I would have thought after the success of KUNG-FU PANDA, kung-fu is currently the more recognizable of the martial arts.

I just wish I could sit in on the meetings where shit like this is decided in Hollywood. I bet their asinine conversations are more entertaining than most of the movies they make.
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Postby Zahveed » Mon Jun 21, 2010 9:05 pm

I'm going to be honest. As a little kid growing up in the American Southeast suburbs of the 90's, I didn't know the difference between the martial arts - but I think kids are naturally ignorant.

And that's what Hollywood banks on.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Jun 21, 2010 12:27 pm

Zahveed wrote:They were thinking about changing it to The Kung Fu Kid but kept the name to bank on the original's fanbase. It's more about marketing than ignorance.

Sounds like ignorance to me, but I get your point.

I just do not understand that reasoning though (from the studios point of view) of using the same title as a beloved film. Recylying plots is one thing (DISTURBIA vs REAR WINDOW), but remakes like this that just shamelessly and illogically use the title of an old, beloved film as lazy advertising just seem to exemplify the worst traits of Hollywood.

This example just seemed to have the added bonus of being, at best, culturally ignorant.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1277141561
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Postby Zahveed » Sun Jun 20, 2010 9:07 pm

They were thinking about changing it to The Kung Fu Kid but kept the name to bank on the original's fanbase. It's more about marketing than ignorance.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jun 18, 2010 2:06 pm

MovieWes wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote:I sure hope the horrid and racist THE KARATE KID seriously falls in its second weekend, but I am not holding my breath. At this point I would settle for no more than $150 m, but $200 m is a scary possibility.

I'm sure that The Karate Kid is a terrible movie, but this is the first I've heard about it being racist. Culturally ignorant maybe, but racist? That's a stretch.

If the good folks in Hollywood cannot tell the difference between Japanese karate and Chinese Kung-fu because all Asian cultures are the same to them, then that is racist to me.

Do not even get me started on the de-Asianing of THE LAST AIRBENDER.
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Postby MovieWes » Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:56 pm

rolotomasi99 wrote:I sure hope the horrid and racist THE KARATE KID seriously falls in its second weekend, but I am not holding my breath. At this point I would settle for no more than $150 m, but $200 m is a scary possibility.

I'm sure that The Karate Kid is a terrible movie, but this is the first I've heard about it being racist. Culturally ignorant maybe, but racist? That's a stretch.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Jun 17, 2010 11:55 am

After the huge boxoffice upset from last weekend, I am assuming the bigger film (TOY STORY 3) will easily top the smaller film (JONAH HEX).

Early reviews for the newest Pixar film are as good as ever. Strong reviews plus strong brand loyalty not only to Pixar but the TOY STORY franchise with extra help from 3-D prices and little serious competition should hopefully deliver a huge opening. I would say anything less than a $100 m would be very disappointing.

I predict around $120 m for TOY STORY 3, with a possible $400+ m final tally. Not only does the Pixar film have not much in competition this weekend, but nothing serious until three weekends after this coming one when DESPICABLE ME opens. THE LAST AIRBENDER might take some of the family audience, but that is two weekends from this one.

I have no idea how excited people are for JONAH HEX, but it looks awful. I am surprise this is being released in the competitive summer months. It would seem more at home in the doldrums of September. I would be surprised if it did more than $10 m for an opening and $30 m for its final tally.

I sure hope the horrid and racist THE KARATE KID seriously falls in its second weekend, but I am not holding my breath. At this point I would settle for no more than $150 m, but $200 m is a scary possibility.

The A-TEAM will probably end up with a final tally around $75 m. Pretty bad for a $100 m budgeted film.
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Postby MovieWes » Sat Jun 12, 2010 12:16 pm

Very early estimates.

1. Karate Kid (Sony) NEW [3,663 Theaters]
Friday $19M, Estimated Weekend $52M
2. The A-Team (Fox) NEW [3,535 Theaters]
Friday $9.5M, Estimated Weekend $27M
3. Shrek Forever After (DWA/Par) Week 4 [3,868 Theaters]
Friday $4.5M, Estimated Weekend $17.5M, Estimated Cume $211.5M
4. Get Him To The Greek (Universal) Week 2 [2,702 Theaters]
Friday $3.2M (-48%), Estimated Weekend $9.5M, Estimated Cume $36.2M
5. Killers (Lionsgate) Week 2 [2,859 Theaters]
Friday $2.6M (-53%), Estimated Weekend $8M, Estimated Cume $30.2M
6. Prince Of Persia: The Sands of Time (Disney) Week 3 [3,108 Theaters]
Friday $1.9M, Estimated Weekend $6.5M, Estimated Cume $72.3M
7. Marmaduke (Fox) Week 2 [3,213 Theaters]
Friday $1.8M (-48%), Estimated Weekend $6.5M, Estimated Cume $22.7M
8. Sex And The City 2 (NL/Warner Bros) Week 3 [2,750 Theaters]
Friday $1.8M, Estimated Weekend $5.2M, Estimated Cume $84.5M
9. Iron Man 2 (Marvel/Paramount) Week 6 [2,305 Theaters]
Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $4.5M, Estimated Cume $299.2M
10. Splice (Dark Castle/Warner Bros) Week 2 [2,450 Theaters]
Friday $850K (-68%), Estimated Weekend $2.5M, Estimated Cume $12.7M

Some thoughts: If these numbers hold up, The Karate Kid could be poised to become the biggest surprise hit of the summer. $250 million is certainly not out of the question at this point. I really thought that The A-Team would take the weekend, but apparently audiences that grew up in the 80s are waxing nostalgic for Mr. Miyagi moreso than for Mr. T.

Shrek Forever After has really rebounded nicely after its lackluster opening weekend and still has a (small) shot at topping $300 million. It obviously won't top the last two entries of the franchise, but it will easily surpass the first movie.

Prince of Persia and Sex and the City 2 continue to disappoint. Sex 2 will barely top $100 million while Prince will likely top out right below $90 million. Pathetic for both.

For me, the biggest question of the summer is whether or not Iron Man 2 will surpass the $318 million intake of the first movie. That is still very much up in the air right now.




Edited By MovieWes on 1276363445
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu May 27, 2010 3:39 pm

This is the weekend summer officially begins. We have two very different but big movies opening.

First up is SEX AND THE CITY 2. While I figured the first one would be a hit, I never thought it would make $152 m in the US and another $262 m overseas. The $57 m opening was also quite surprising. However, did anyone truly love that movie or was it just residual love from the TV series? The sequel should answer that since it is basically more of the same.
Since the film is opening on Thursday the Fri-to-Sun weekend gross may be less than last time. I could see $15 m on Thursday with an additional $35 m on the weekend for a $50 m total. With the Memorial Day weekend, the film could easily make $60 m by Tuesday. Overall, the film will probably do about $125 m.

The other big film, and the one everyone is far more nervous about, is THE PRINCE OF PERSIA. Video-game films have been a mixed bag. Only two live-action video-game adaptations have been successful: the first TOMB RAIDER and the first MORTAL KOMBAT. The sequels to those two plus all the other series were either mild successes or absolute bombs. THE PRINCE OF PERSIA seems like the most capable of being a huge hit, mostly because of the backing of Bruckheimer. With not much competition in the action/adventure area, I expect a pretty sizable opening Memorial Day weekend. Possibly $60-70 m from Fri-to-Sun plus another $20 m on Monday. With very little competition over the next few weekends, the film could easily pass $200 m.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri May 21, 2010 4:01 pm

While some people will still waste their money on it, most people were disappointed enough in SHREK THE THIRD to keep them from seeing SHREK FOREVER AFTER. With 3-D tickets helping, it will probably do about $75 m for its opening weekend. Hopefully it will not make any more than $250 m, which should be low enough to prevent another sequel.

MACGRUBER is the only comedy for adults other than the surprisingly successful DATE NIGHT. It might do around $10-15 m. Probably will not make any more than $50 m altogether (if that).
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri May 14, 2010 8:43 am

Well, some are calling IRON MAN 2 a disappointment, but I still think it is going to make north of $400 m. Second weekend will probably be around $60 m.

ROBIN HOOD will probably grab $30 m, and do similar overall business as PUBLIC ENEMIES. However the latter film cost much less than is being report for ROBIN HOOD, though the former film will probably do better business over-seas.

LETTERS TO JULIET will make $20 m and JUST WRIGHT will earn around $10 m.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue May 11, 2010 12:07 pm

Sabin wrote:I think Iron Man 2 is going to prove to be the biggest film of the year until Tron Legacy.

That would be incredible. However, I doubt that will happen. Despite not breaking THE DARK KNIGHT's record, IRON MAN 2 is going to do quite well. I still see it doing between $400-425 m.

TRON LEGACY will probably do really well, especially now that THE GREEN HORNET has moved its release back to 2011. However, I think it will be about as successful as the new STAR TREK.

My new top ten predix.

1) Iron Man 2 -- $425 million
2) Toy Story 3 -- $375 million
3) Alice In Wonderland -- $340 million
4) Harry Potter And The Deathly Hollows -- $320 million
5) Eclipse -- $300 million
6) Tron Legacy -- $260
7) Inception -- $250 million
8) Prince Of Persia -- $240 million
9) Shrek Forever After -- $230 million
10) Little Fockers -- $220 million
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Postby Bog » Fri May 07, 2010 8:28 pm

Sabin wrote:I'm just crossing my fingers that Sherlock Holmes: The Case of the Something or Other proves as surprisingly awesome as the original.

Unfortunately you're serious

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Postby Sabin » Fri May 07, 2010 11:33 am

I think Iron Man 2 is going to A) outgross the first Iron Man, B) prove to be the biggest film of the year until Tron Legacy, and C) I know this because word of mouth is coming in that it's not very good, that it's both under- and overly ambitious, and when sequels like that happen (Shrek 2, Dead Man's Chest) they tear it up.

I'm just crossing my fingers that Sherlock Holmes: The Case of the Something or Other proves as surprisingly awesome as the original.
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