2010 Box-Office Predix - Let the guessing begin!

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rolotomasi99
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu May 06, 2010 11:24 am

Well, I think we may finally see the opening weekend record held briefly by THE DARK KNIGHT fall. IRON MAN 2 seems to have everything going for it -- successful first film that exceeded expectations and left everyone wanting more, a weekend all to itself, very little competition from films already released, and the first full Fri-Sun weekend of May.

I think it could easily do $160 million opening. If it were in 3-D, I would think it might even have been able to do $200 m its opening weekend. That will most likely will not happen until AVATAR 2.

There is a small possibility that IRON MAN 2 will do slightly less than the $158 m opening of THE DARK KNIGHT. School is not out yet, so the younger crowd will probably only be able to see the film once the first weekend rather than being free all of Friday and all of Sunday night. Still, there are probably enough out-of-work fanboys that will end up watching this film at least once of its first three days of release.

Ultimately, I think this film will end up with around $450 m for its final gross. At this point, the only thing that could possibly pose a threat to its place at number one for the year is TOY STORY 3. I think IRON MAN 2 pretty much has it in the bag.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Mar 15, 2010 11:15 am

Well, I was pretty close with ALICE IN WONDERLAND, SHE'S OUT OF MY LEAGUE, and OUR FAMILY WEDDING. I was pretty off with REMEMBER ME and way off with GREEN ZONE.

I imagine GREEN ZONE will be another success-on-DVD like other mid-east-conflict flops such as THE KINGDOM, BODY OF LIES, and THE HURT LOCKER. I guess people just need a war to be over before they can see a movie about it.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Mar 12, 2010 11:19 am

Since I keep underestimating the power of 3-D, I am going against my first thought this time and see if I have better luck with my predix.

I say ALICE IN WONDERLAND drops around 50% making in the ball park of $60 m. Even that could be too low, but any more is just too sad to contemplate.

GREEN ZONE will earn around $45 m, followed by REMEMBER ME with $15 m, and hopefully SHE'S OUT OF MY LEAGUE bombs with less than $10 m. OUR FAMILY WEDDING will probably also be somewhere south of $10 m.

My new prediction for ALICE IN WONDERLAND is a $300 m final take. At this rate, I am surprised IRON MAN 2 has not decided to convert to 3-D. That would easily allow it to break THE DARK KNIGHT's opening weekend record and guarantee it make more than $400 m.
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby Sonic Youth » Tue Mar 09, 2010 12:20 pm

dws1982 wrote:It's not an American Box-Office item but Damien might get a kick out of it.

Uma Thurman's film Motherhood (it was barely released in the States) made £9 in the entire UK on Sunday.

But she told all her friends to go see it.
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Postby dws1982 » Tue Mar 09, 2010 12:13 pm

It's not an American Box-Office item but Damien might get a kick out of it.

Uma Thurman's film Motherhood (it was barely released in the States) made £9 in the entire UK on Sunday.




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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Mon Mar 08, 2010 4:09 am

Let the future crap collabs of Burton/Depp continue! Unbelievable what the masses will do when they are told to.

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Postby Zahveed » Mon Mar 08, 2010 12:27 am

Wow. I didn't see that one coming.
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Postby Sonic Youth » Sun Mar 07, 2010 7:52 pm

'Alice' opens with $116.3 million, a 3-D record
Mar 7, 5:27 PM (ET)
By JAKE COYLE


NEW YORK (AP) - Tim Burton and Johnny Depp's trip down the rabbit hole drew huge crowds, as "Alice in Wonderland" earned a whopping $116.3 million in its opening weekend - a record for a 3-D film.

The surprisingly huge total easily surpassed all other films in release and gave Walt Disney Studios an even bigger opening than that of the hugely popular 3-D film "Avatar." It also marked the biggest opening weekend for a non-sequel.

"This is just one of those cultural phenomenons that has caught everybody's interest," said Chuck Viane, Disney's president of distribution. "They don't come like this very often."

The film beat forecasts that ranged between $65 million-$75 million, and the surprising results added some intrigue to Oscar Sunday. Before the weekend, Disney and 20th Century Fox competed over the available 3-D ready screens; screens outfitted for 3-D are rapidly rising, but still amount to fewer than 4,000 in the U.S. and Canada.

Before "Alice," many of those screens were still dedicated to Fox's box-office behemoth, "Avatar," which is up for nine Academy Awards on Sunday, including best picture.

In its 12th week of release, "Avatar" earned $7.7 million over the weekend, bringing its cumulative domestic total to $720.2 million.

Asked whether fewer 3-D and IMAX screens hurt "Avatar," Chris Aronson, head of distribution for Fox, said, "No question."

"Are we disappointed? Sure," said Aronson. "But there are certain market forces that are beyond anything we can do. To have an 11-week window is pretty much unheard of. It certainly allowed this movie to be discovered and witnessed by so many people."

"Avatar" isn't disappearing, though, and it can be expected to regain 3-D and IMAX screens, especially if it wins best picture.

"We'll have that negotiation tomorrow morning with exhibition, without a doubt," said Aronson.

It also seemed likely that "Alice" benefited from the "Avatar"-effect in galvanizing audiences for 3-D movies. "Alice in Wonderland" is the first film released in 3-D since James Cameron's epic. "Alice" was shot in 2-D, but transferred to 3-D in post-production.

"In the wake of the impact of 'Avatar,' there's a whole new audience that's been indoctrinated to 3-D," said Paul Dergarabedian, box-office analyst for Hollywood.com. "That paid off big for 'Alice in Wonderland.'"

The weekend's second best performer at the box-office was Overture's "Brooklyn's Finest," Antoine Fuqua's gritty police thriller, which earned $13.5 million in its first weekend, according to studio estimates.

Martin Scorsese's "Shutter Island" for Paramount followed closely with $13.3 million in its third week of release, bringing its cumulative total to $95.8 million. Warner Bros.'s comedy "Cop Out" came in fourth, adding $9.1 million for a two-week total of $32.4 million.

But "Alice" thoroughly dominated the weekend, surprising even Disney. Worldwide, it took in $210.3 million.

It was a record release for the first quarter of the year, typically a time of lower box-office expectations and critically acclaimed Oscar contenders. The previous first quarter record was Mel Gibson's "Passion of the Christ," which opened with $83.8 million in Feb. 2004.

"We went into Friday thinking that we really had a big hit with us, and then all of a sudden the numbers started to roll in," said Viane. "Alice" went on to make $41 million on Friday alone.

"We said, 'Oh my gosh. This is bigger than any of us could have anticipated," said Viane.

Though reviews were mostly respectfully negative, much of the film's draw was surely in teaming director Burton and his frequent collaborator, Depp, who plays the Mad Hatter. It also presented moviegoers with a 3-D updating of Lewis Carroll's beloved classic. Though at times dark, it gained a PG rating from the MPAA (for, among other things, "a smoking caterpillar"), which meant a large number of kids could attend.

But it proved once again how significant the draw of 3-D is to moviegoers. The technology repeatedly has inflated box-office grosses for everything from "Avatar" to "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs."

"Alice" also played across 188 IMAX screens in North America and gave IMAX its best opening ever, with $11.9 million domestically. That beat the previous record of $9.5 million set by "Avatar."

IMAX chairman and president Greg Foster said the huge success of "Alice" was unexpected, but that "Avatar" would regain some of those IMAX screens, whether or not it wins best picture.

"The momentum on 3-D is so massive right now," said Foster. "They were ready for a new movie. They were ready for a new, cool 3-D experience."

Though most of the Oscar contenders weren't a big factor at the box-office Sunday, the boffo performance of "Alice" proved the good health of Hollywood, said Dergarabedian.

Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Hollywood.com. Final figures will be released Monday.

1. "Alice in Wonderland," $116.3 million.

2. "Brookyn's Finest," $13.5 million.

3. "Shutter Island," $13.3 million.

4. "Cop Out," $9.1 million.

5. "Avatar," $7.7 million.

6. "The Crazies," $7 million.

7. "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief," $5.1 million.

8. "Valentine's Day," $4.3 million.

9. "Crazy Heart," $3.4 million.

10. "Dear John," $2.9 million.
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Postby MovieWes » Fri Mar 05, 2010 6:19 pm

If the price of stocks on the Hollywood Stock Exchange predicted box-office, here is what the results would be. Kind of interesting...

1) Iron Man 2- $392.3 million
2) The Twilight Saga: Eclipse- $337.3 million
3) Toy Story 3- $327.1 million
4) Shrek Forever After- $320.3 million
5) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1- $263.9 million
6) Alice in Wonderland- $233.1 million
7) Inception- $196.4 million
8) Clash of the Titans- $183.3 million
9) Sex and the City 2- $182.7 million
10) Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time- $172.8 million
11) The A-Team- $169.2 million
12) Robin Hood- $162.2 million
13) Grown Ups- $144.9 million
14) Little Fockers- $142.6 million
15) The Last Airbender- $139.4 million
16) Jonah Hex- $137.7 million
17) Knight & Day- $136.4 million
17) Tron: Legacy- $134.6 million
18) How to Train Your Dragon- $132.7 million
19) The Sorcerer's Apprentice- $110.9 million
19) A Nightmare on Elm Street- $110.6 million
20) Valentine's Day- $105.1 million
21) Shutter Island- $103.6 million
22) The Karate Kid- $104.1 million
23) Kick-Ass- $102.2 million




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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Mar 05, 2010 5:57 pm

While I will certainly not be buying a ticket to this stinker, I am guessing ALICE IN WONDERLAND will make $80 million in its first weekend. It will probably make $250 million in the long run. Once again 3-D ticket prices will inflate the perception of how popular it actually is, but this one will definitely make money.
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Postby MovieWes » Sat Feb 06, 2010 4:30 pm

Well, Avatar will finally fall to second place this weekend to Dear John, of all things. I knew it wouldn't last forever, but I thought that it would at least last through this weekend against such a weak slate of openers. I was hoping that it would be Scorsese's Shutter Island next weekend, but oh well. This week, Avatar will become the first film of the millennium to crack the inflation-adjusted top 20.



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"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)

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Postby Damien » Wed Feb 03, 2010 10:55 pm

I know LOTS of people who have seen Avatar, but no one is really talking about it. They're all a little sheepish about having gone to it, saying things like "Well, it is a cultural phenomenon, so I wanted to check it out." Nobody I know -- and my circle tends to be well-educated lefties on the East and West coasts -- has any particular love for it, although a number of people have laughingly applauded Cameron's simplistic politics.
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Postby dws1982 » Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:20 pm

The strange thing is that I only know a few people who've seen it, and I don't know anyone who wants to see it, or is talking about it. Titanic was all anyone could talk about twelve years ago, but then again my social circle has changed a lot since then. Maybe all of the high school kids are all about Avatar.

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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:42 pm

As of yesterday, its 47th day in release and the day it earned 9 Oscar nominations including Picture, with a running total of $601.1M, Avatar is officially the number 1 domestic blockbuster. Who can say where it ends up?

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Postby Eric » Mon Feb 01, 2010 9:11 pm

This isn't even inflation. This is tickets that (at least in the U.S.) cost 40% more than average tickets for all other movies being released today.

I'm sorry if it offends you that Avatar's box-office records will forever carry a Roger Maris asterisk, Jack. But it's in the interest of accuracy.


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