2010 Box-Office Predix - Let the guessing begin!

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Zahveed
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Postby Zahveed » Mon Feb 01, 2010 8:32 pm

It was definitely brought up back in the reign of TDK.
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Postby OscarGuy » Sun Jan 31, 2010 9:29 pm

I remember bringing up inflation back in the Dark Knight brouhaha...and it comes up every year that people blow box office numbers out of proportion.
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Postby jack » Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:53 pm

Sonic Youth wrote:
jack wrote:Who cares.

Europe and Asia, for starters.

And let's not forget, when you factor in population figures and take into account that the U.S. population was less than 1/2 in 1939 than what it is today, Avatar has so far only managed about 20% of Gone With the Wind's ticket sales.

But it's true, we do have a tendency to exclusively follow the sexiest-sounding media account.

Why is this an issue? Last year when The Dark Knight made over $1b there was no talk of ticket counts or inflation adjustments (if there was I can't remember).

Whether it be the sexist-sounding media or IMDb Avatar will stand as the top grossing film of all time.

I have no issue with this. Why do so many others?

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Postby Sonic Youth » Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:38 pm

jack wrote:Who cares.

Europe and Asia, for starters.

And let's not forget, when you factor in population figures and take into account that the U.S. population was less than 1/2 in 1939 than what it is today, Avatar has so far only managed about 20% of Gone With the Wind's ticket sales.

But it's true, we do have a tendency to exclusively follow the sexiest-sounding media account.
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Postby jack » Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:04 pm

Eric wrote:I've seen someone somewhere break down the adjusted domestic box office totals to account for the majority of tickets bought being $3 more expensive than regular tickets. If that average is taken into account, Avatar has sold an estimated 55 million tickets in the U.S.

No small feat, of course, but the calculation does indeed knock the movie down quite a few slots on this list, from an entirely not accurate #26 (75.2 million tickets) to somewhere in the 70s.

Granted, I could see it racking up another 20-30 million tickets from here on out. But that would still only get it to the mid-20s. I feel pretty confident it won't actually rival Titanic (much less Gone with the Wind) with respect to its estimated audience head count.

Who cares.

This point isn't directed at you, Eric, I'm just using your post as it was the last one posted... At the end of the day, Avatar has made over $2bill worldwide. Accept it.

We can adjust for inflation all we want, but Avatar will presently be recognised as the top grossing film of all time.

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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sun Jan 31, 2010 7:59 pm

A friend of mine reckons that James Cameron's movies are full of subliminal images to keep people coming back and praising them, even though they are often mediocre.

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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sun Jan 31, 2010 7:26 pm

I still remember following Titanic's weekly box office and being amazed at how well it was holding, grossing so consistently. It's great to have the same feeling again.

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Postby Eric » Fri Jan 29, 2010 2:48 am

I've seen someone somewhere break down the adjusted domestic box office totals to account for the majority of tickets bought being $3 more expensive than regular tickets. If that average is taken into account, Avatar has sold an estimated 55 million tickets in the U.S.

No small feat, of course, but the calculation does indeed knock the movie down quite a few slots on this list, from an entirely not accurate #26 (75.2 million tickets) to somewhere in the 70s.

Granted, I could see it racking up another 20-30 million tickets from here on out. But that would still only get it to the mid-20s. I feel pretty confident it won't actually rival Titanic (much less Gone with the Wind) with respect to its estimated audience head count.




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Postby Sonic Youth » Fri Jan 29, 2010 1:54 am

jack wrote:I don't get why folks keep bring up inflation. If we use inflated boxoffice to gage things, we'll never be able to move on from Gone With The Wind, thus rendering these Box-Office Prediction posts pointless.

Here are a few examples of news items one can read in the publication Variety:

Austria sets box office admission record
Country breaks the 1 million mark for ticket sales
By ERIK KIRSCHBAUMBERLIN --

Austria broke the 1 million mark for cinema ticket sales for the first time ever this year, crossing the magic barrier with more than two months to spare, Austria's Film Institute said on Thursday.

In a nation of 8 million, Austrians were attracted to local hits including "Echte Wiener -- Die Sackbauer Saga," which sold 370,000 tickets, and "Der Knockenmann," which shifted 260,000 tickets, the org said.


French cinema admissions fall 15%
Lack of local blockbuster drags down figures
By JOHN HOPEWELL

Total cinema theater tix sold in France plummeted a whopping year-on-year 15.2% January-March, according to CNC stats
.
But the cause isn't the recession, but Dany Boon's B.O. champ of champs "Welcome to the Sticks," which bowed Feb. 25 2008. "Sticks" took the lion's share of its final 20.5 million admission trawl in March last year, going on to become the most-watched French movie in Gaul ever.

The second most popular film in France last year, "Asterix and Obelix at the Olympic Games," directed by Frederic Forestier and Thomas Langmann, bowed late January 2008, punching a total 6.8 million admissions.

With French B.O. so heavily frontloaded last year, first quarter '09 Gallic B.O. this year was never likely to get anywhere near 2008.

Best perfing pics in France through April 14 were breakout Pathe production "LOL (Laughing Out Loud," 3.6 million admissions), WB's "Gran Torino" (3.1 million), a second French production, StudioCanal's "Coco" (2.85 million), Disney's "Bolt" (2.85 million) and "Twilight" (2.8 million), distribbed by SND.


Admissions, admissions, admissions. Many European and Asian countries place an emphasis on admissions (or tickets) sold, and less on the amount of money. For some reason, this information is repressed here in America and actively discouraged whenever anyone tries to bring it up, as if it were an ethical breach.

That's not how economists work. Quarterly figures of home and auto sales don't examine the amount of money made by real estate and auto companies, but by the number of properties and vehicles sold. This isn't to say that the gross prophet isn't taken into consideration, but it's not emphasized in the quarterly reports. And in order to gauge the consumer's purchasing trends, it makes sense. Buying a house for $100,000 in 1939 (the year of "Gone With the Wind") meant you were very wealthy indeed. Today, there's no such thing as a $100,000 house that isn't a hovel. And therefore, it's less meaningful today than it was 60 years ago... just like Avatar's box office numbers will seem less impressive in 2070, when a goodly number of films a year break the domestic billion-dollar mark on a regular basis. That's why not adjusting for inflation is a double edged sword.

Billboard doesn't rank CDs and singles by the amount of money it makes, but by the number of units sold. That's the measurement used to determine Gold and Platinum records. If we used gross dollar amounts, we may never know that people are buying fewer CDs than they used to. But we're supposed to disregard 'adjusted for inflation' figures when it comes to movie releases? I know that's what the movie companies - not to mention media reporters - would love for us to do. But it provides a skewed perspective.




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Postby OscarGuy » Tue Jan 26, 2010 8:01 pm

who said anything about Gone WIth the Wind? I was talking Titanic. Which had only one release which, when inflated, comes out to around $943 M. I think it's an important distinction.
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Postby MovieWes » Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:45 pm

Well it has happened. The Titanic has finally been sunk.

Avatar: $1,858,866,889
Titanic: $1,843,201,268

But I have to wonder... is Titanic still making money someplace in the world. It seems to have gone up about $300,000 since Sunday.




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Postby jack » Sun Jan 24, 2010 6:46 pm

MovieWes wrote:
jack wrote:I think it's got about $150m to go to beat Titanic worldwide record.

Correction... it has $6.7 million to go. It has already surpassed Titanic's overseas gross.

As of today...

Titanic - $1,842,879,955
Avatar - $1,836,143,000

Bloody hell...

When I checked a few hours ago it was sitting at around $1.65b.

Ladies and Gentleman we have our Best Picture Oscar winner...

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Postby MovieWes » Sun Jan 24, 2010 6:40 pm

jack wrote:I think it's got about $150m to go to beat Titanic worldwide record.

Correction... it has $6.7 million to go. It has already surpassed Titanic's overseas gross.

As of today...

Titanic - $1,842,879,955
Avatar - $1,836,143,000
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)

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Postby dreaMaker » Sun Jan 24, 2010 6:14 pm

jack wrote:I don't get why folks keep bring up inflation. If we use inflated boxoffice to gage things, we'll never be able to move on from Gone With The Wind, thus rendering these Box-Office Prediction posts pointless.

Oh, OscarGuy is just jealous of Avatar. :)

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Postby jack » Sun Jan 24, 2010 5:01 pm

Greg wrote:There is one problem with bringing in inflation, and that is re-releases. Gone with The Wind made much of its box office through numerous re-releases over the decades. Avatar is still in its first release; and, we have no idea how much money it will make during the following decades.

Correct.

Imagine - Avatar 4D; Avatar 5D... The possibilities are endless... I'm kidding. Though I do completelyy agree with Greg on this one.


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