2010 Box-Office Predix - Let the guessing begin!

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Postby Greg » Sun Jan 24, 2010 4:54 pm

There is one problem with bringing in inflation, and that is re-releases. Gone with The Wind made much of its box office through numerous re-releases over the decades. Avatar is still in its first release; and, we have no idea how much money it will make during the following decades.



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Postby jack » Sun Jan 24, 2010 4:29 pm

I don't get why folks keep bring up inflation. If we use inflated boxoffice to gage things, we'll never be able to move on from Gone With The Wind, thus rendering these Box-Office Prediction posts pointless.



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Postby OscarGuy » Sun Jan 24, 2010 4:09 pm

Let's also put this in perspective. Even if it tops at $700M, it wouldn't crack the all-time Top 10 when you take into account inflation. Matter of fact, it would have to pass $943 M just to eclipse Titanic.
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Postby jack » Sun Jan 24, 2010 3:24 pm

I think it's got about $150m to go to beat Titanic worldwide record.

I can see it's domestic total edging by $700m and then start fizzle out - unless everyone goes to see it again after it wins a truck-load of Oscars... I'm going to predict around $2.2b worldwide total.




Edited By jack on 1264364676

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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sun Jan 24, 2010 2:59 pm

dreaMaker wrote:36 millions for Avatar on its 6th weekend. Unbelievable... A 15% drop.
And i remember when i predicted Avatar's box-office total, being soooo generous while giving him $250-300 M and $600-700 M worldwide. And i was so wrong.

I think most everyone crapped the bed with such low numbers. At this rate, it will sail past Titanic by the end of next weekend. Its biggest weekend drop was only 26%, and that was in its fourth weekend coming out of the holidays. The only thing left to speculate about is its total. Can it crack $700M? $800M? Even higher? The way it has been holding hasn't been seen since Titanic itself, so we could be looking at a ridiculous total.

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Postby dreaMaker » Sun Jan 24, 2010 11:41 am

36 millions for Avatar on its 6th weekend. Unbelievable... A 15% drop.
And i remember when i predicted Avatar's box-office total, being soooo generous while giving him $250-300 M and $600-700 M worldwide. And i was so wrong.

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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sat Jan 23, 2010 4:04 pm

Another weekend record for Avatar in its sixth weekend. Titanic had a sixth of $25.2M - next weekend might end Avatar's streak as the boat increased to $25.9M.

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Postby MovieWes » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:39 pm

Some early estimates...

Top 10 For Friday

1. Avatar (Fox) Week 6
Friday $9.1M (-12%) Est Wkd $34M, Est Cume $550M
2. Legion (Sony) NEW [2,476 Theaters]
Friday $6.8M, Est Wkd $18M
3. Book of Eli (Warner Bros) Week 2
Friday $5.0M (-57), Est Wkd $15M, Est Cume $60M.
4. The Tooth Fairy (Fox) NEW [3,344 Theaters]
Friday $3.8M, Est Wkd $14M
5. Lovely Bones (Paramount)
Friday $2.8M, Est Wkd $9M, Est Cume $31.8M
6. Extraordinary Measures (CBS Films) NEW [2,549 Theaters]
Friday $2.1M, Est Wkd $7M
7. Sherlock Holmes (Warner Bros)
Friday $1.9M, Est Wkd $6.5M, Est Cume $190.7M
8. It's Complicated (Universal)
Friday $1.7M, Est Wkd $6M, Est Cume $98.4M
9. Alvin & The Chipmunks: The Squeakquel (Fox)
Friday $1.4M, Est Wkd $6.5M, Est Cume $204M
10. The Blind Side (Warner Bros)
Friday $1.2M, Est Wkd $4M, Est Cume $233.5M




Edited By MovieWes on 1264268393
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Postby dreaMaker » Sun Jan 17, 2010 6:31 am

Zahveed wrote:
MovieWes wrote:The Lovely Bones earned an estimated $5.7 million on Friday and is expected to earn $25 million over the weekend.

Wouldn't we all be kicking ourselves if this movie was resurrected.

Doubtful but humorous thought.

hehe, yes. :)

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Postby Zahveed » Sun Jan 17, 2010 1:51 am

MovieWes wrote:The Lovely Bones earned an estimated $5.7 million on Friday and is expected to earn $25 million over the weekend.

Wouldn't we all be kicking ourselves if this movie was resurrected.

Doubtful but humorous thought.
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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sat Jan 16, 2010 7:50 pm

That Friday figure represents a tiny 21.7% drop from last Friday.

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Postby MovieWes » Sat Jan 16, 2010 1:49 pm

Early estimates have Avatar making $10.5 million on Friday, which pushes its total to $461 million and past Star Wars's $460 million, making it the third highest grossing film of all-time. Pundits are predicting it to make around $50 million over the 4-day MLK holiday, which would put it at around $500 million by Tuesday morning.

Although Avatar is predicted to win the 4-day weekend by a large margin, The Book of Eli knocked it down to second place on Friday, earning an estimated $11.7 million. It is predicted to earn around $35 million for the weekend.

The Lovely Bones earned an estimated $5.7 million on Friday and is expected to earn $25 million over the weekend.
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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sun Jan 10, 2010 12:47 pm

Seeing as how it is 2010, we can discussing the box office here in this thread with another week of Avatar smashing records blah blah blah. It is estimated to have made $48.5M in its fourth weekend, easily a new record (replacing Cameron's own Titanic) with a total of $429M. Bye bye Transformers 2!
Box Office Guru has a chart estimating the road ahead for Avatar based on its weekly grosses. Although he factors in the MLK and President's Day weekends, and the release of Alice in Wonderland in IMAX 3D, he does not speculate about the effects of Golden Globes/Oscar nominations/wins.
http://www.boxofficeguru.com/avatar.htm

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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:02 am

OscarGuy wrote:I don't know if Franz feels this way, but I do. I'm really getting sick of Tim Burton. His revisionist versions of established sources of late have left me cold. That Johnny Depp shits all over this movie makes me even more angry (don't call it Alice in Wonderland if it's not wholly based on the original story, call it something else).

Personally, I hope it's a failure just so that maybe the studios won't just throw money at Burton to make crap.

That's it exactly, I couldn't have said it better! I think it's a combination of Tim Burton and his tiring shtick, and Johnny Depp and his own even more tiring shtick. It feels like Depp is squandering his well-deserved second wind with some really poor same-y choices - is it a personal choice or has he been pigeonholed by the industry? I want it to fail big, even though some friends are really excited for it.

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Postby Zahveed » Wed Jan 06, 2010 11:07 am

My first three are the same as Rolo and Wes. No actual gross predictions though.

1. Iron Man 2
2. Toy Story 3
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows, Part 1
4. Inception
5. The Shimmering Vampire Saga: Three's Company
6. Tron: Legacy
7. Robin Hood
8. The Social Network
9. Clash of the Titans
10. Shrek Forever After
11. Alice in Wonderland
12. Rapunzel
13. Shutter Island
14. Little Fockers
15. Yogi Bear




Edited By Zahveed on 1262794135
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