Categories One-by-One: Best Picture

Franz Ferdinand
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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sun Feb 27, 2011 1:04 pm

I am going to take comfort in MovieWes's logical argument on the Final Thoughts thread and sticking with the Social Network based on its precursor history. I will just conveniently forget about Brokeback Mountain (the most recent predecent) and focus instead on Schindler's List.

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Postby Big Magilla » Sun Feb 27, 2011 11:20 am

I think The King's Speech is only going to win if it gets the requisite 50% plus one first place votes. Otherwise I think The Social Network, whether it has enough to win on first place votes or not, is going to take it because I think it will place second or third on more ballots than The King's Speech, which you either love or don't. While not a lot of people love The Social Network, most respect its artistry. I just don't know where the balance is between the two, and neither does anyone else.
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Postby OscarGuy » Sun Feb 27, 2011 8:27 am

Precedent would be against either Toy Story 3 or True Grit winning. The Fighter and Black Swan are the only two films that would be eligible to win (they are both Best Editing nominees), though Black Swan doesn't have a writing nomination, so it's chances are also heavily diminished. But considering how little talk The Fighter has received and how much it feels that the film has lost steam, I can't really see it being the default choice.

The problem is, it doesn't matter where Social Network or King's Speech are ranked on those voters' ballots. It matters only who didn't vote for Social Network or King's Speech and where they placed their second-level votes. After all, if all the Winter's Bone, Kids Are All Right, Inception and 127 Hours voters had King's Speech second and Social Network third, King's Speech would still come out on top. Social Network and King's Speech fans will have absolutely no influence in picking the winner. They don't give it to the one with the highest average.
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Postby anonymous1980 » Sun Feb 27, 2011 8:04 am

I think this is a genuinely competitive race this year. I don't think The King's Speech is that big of a lock to win. I'm still predicting it. It has the best chance but I feel like this category isn't quite sewn up until the envelope is opened unless of course The King's Speech wins Editing, Cinematography, Sound Mixing and at least one of the Supporting acting awards, then we'll know the Academy truly does has a hard-on for film and automatically voted for it EVERYWHERE.

I also have a feeling that if enough King's Speech fans and Social Network fans from within the Academy vote strategically with the special voting system in the Best Picture category, (that is place the one of the two films on the bottom and their preference to win Best Picture as #1), there is also a possibility that a third film breaks through. A film that is widely seen and widely liked with only a few detractors which most Academy members would probably list in the upper-half of their ballots. The Fighter, Toy Story 3 and True Grit fit this bill and I think there is a very real possibility one of them could be the shocker win.

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Postby anonymous1980 » Sun Feb 27, 2011 7:51 am

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

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