2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby rolotomasi99 » Sun Jan 08, 2012 9:38 pm

Mister Tee wrote:War Horse, still viewed as a top tier shoo-in (notably by Dave Karger at EW), took a substantial drop this week. It's now on pace to just match We Bought a Zoo, a movie no one's talking about in Oscar terms. Whether the film makes it tomorrow at DGA or not, I'm beginning to wonder if it's more Empire of the Sun than Munich.


WAR HORSE is not taking off at the box-office, but I have noticed the imdb rating rise. Before it officially opened, it had a rating of 6.8 from around 500 votes. Now it has a 7.6 from almost 5,000 votes. I think the imdb vote is no more influential on a movie's Best Pictures success than its box-office, but I would say the folks seeing the film are enjoying it. However, from what I heard it is mostly older crowds checking it out. The studio should have sold it as a kids film along the likes of BABE rather than SAVING PRIVATE RYAN for the less popular world war.

Mister Tee wrote:Moreover, last week, War Horse was just about even with Dragon Tattoo. The latter, however, held up exceptionally well, and is now on pace to easily crack $100 milion. If it has any kind of legs, it might end up less an underperformer than it originally appeared. And with nominations from three differemt guilds this week...maybe we've all been too quick to drop it from the best picture pack.


Well, I predicted it would make about $120 m, which it certainly looks like it will do. I am not sure what others were expecting, but considering the subject matter and the foreign setting THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO is doing quite well. I figure the only films from the Producers Guild nominations which might not repeat with the Academy are BRIDESMAIDS and THE IDES OF MARCH. I think this film could certainly have a B.P. nom, along with cinematography, editing, score, sound, screenplay, and maybe actress.

Mister Tee wrote:In a more limited vein: Tinker Tailor went semi-wide this weekend, and didn't hit the wall many have been expecting, grossing over $7000 per in 800+ venues. This is a higher per-screen average than The Artist in only 167 theatres. I think most of us figured Tinker would need award nods to become a commercial success. Doing this well with barely a whimper from critics or early prize groups is pretty amazing -- especially given the rep that you need to be a Mensa candidate to follow the film.


I am so happy about the success of TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY. I too assumed it would be too labyrinthian for even the average art house audience, but it is a much bigger success than anyone could have predicted. I hope the subsequent weeks bring equally strong grosses. I still hope a Best Picture nomination is possible, but at this point it would just be icing on the cake.

Mister Tee wrote:The Artist is holding up well enough, but, truly, for a film assumed to be such a crowd-pleaser, I'd expect bigger crowds. Maybe this'll be a slow-and-steady-wins-the-race case, but, for now, I'd have to guess the Weinsteins are a bit disappointed. And, The Hurt Locker aside, movies that are commercial disappointments don't usually run away with best picture, the way The Artist is supposed to.


I too am surprised at the difficult time THE ARTIST is having catching on with at least art house crowds. I would assume pretty much everyone who sees it is loving it, but the problem is getting them into the theatre in the first place. I doubt this will affect its Oscar chances since Harvey will make sure Academy members are seeing it.

Mister Tee wrote:The Iron Lady is still doing well (though not spectacular) in its very limited release. It probably needs to break out a bit for Streep to really make a showing for best actress.


See I assumed it would be the other way around. I figured once she started winning the Golden Globe and then the Screen Actors Guild award the film would pick up steam, and then it would really find success if she won the Oscar. If Streep does not win any of those awards, THE IRON LADY will probably do about as well as FROST/NIXON.

Mister Tee wrote:And, just to beat a largely-dead horse: Extremely Loud this weekend has almost precisely the same gross and per-screen as A Separation. Given that the former features two of Hollywood's biggest stars and is playing in NY & LA's largest houses, it's an embarrassment that it can't top a subtitled effort in much smaller venues.


I doubt EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE will have much success with the Academy (unless Daldry really does have some magical sway over them), but I would not count out its possible (mild) success at the box-office. It might not be playing well to the metropolitan art house crowds, but it might be able to find an audience in flyover country. Remember THE LOVELY BONES also had a terrible limited run (dropping 61% in its second week), but then expanded to the multiplexes and was able to make $44 m. It was not a hit, but it was not the flop it looked like it might be those first few weekends. It is also based on a popular book which some felt was emotionally manipulative and exploitive. Likewise, perhaps after earlier Best Picture speculation, the film will only earn a single nomination in the Supporting Actor category.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 08, 2012 4:37 pm

Last year, the box office paved the way to the Oscars: the from-the-start outsized performance of The King's Speech foretold its ultimate Oscar success; amazingly strong grosses for Black Swan and The Fighter made their acting wins easy to predict; and the stellar business done by True Grit, along with Inception and Toy Story 3, made the best picture roster fairly clear.

This year, a different story, especially in terms of the films being most highly touted not quite delivering the grosses expected.

To wit:

War Horse, still viewed as a top tier shoo-in (notably by Dave Karger at EW), took a substantial drop this week. It's now on pace to just match We Bought a Zoo, a movie no one's talking about in Oscar terms. Whether the film makes it tomorrow at DGA or not, I'm beginning to wonder if it's more Empire of the Sun than Munich.

Moreover, last week, War Horse was just about even with Dragon Tattoo. The latter, however, held up exceptionally well, and is now on pace to easily crack $100 milion. If it has any kind of legs, it might end up less an underperformer than it originally appeared. And with nominations from three differemt guilds this week...maybe we've all been too quick to drop it from the best picture pack.

In a more limited vein: Tinker Tailor went semi-wide this weekend, and didn't hit the wall many have been expecting, grossing over $7000 per in 800+ venues. This is a higher per-screen average than The Artist in only 167 theatres. I think most of us figured Tinker would need award nods to become a commercial success. Doing this well with barely a whimper from critics or early prize groups is pretty amazing -- especially given the rep that you need to be a Mensa candidate to follow the film.

The Artist is holding up well enough, but, truly, for a film assumed to be such a crowd-pleaser, I'd expect bigger crowds. Maybe this'll be a slow-and-steady-wins-the-race case, but, for now, I'd have to guess the Weinsteins are a bit disappointed. And, The Hurt Locker aside, movies that are commercial disappointments don't usually run away with best picture, the way The Artist is supposed to.

The Iron Lady is still doing well (though not spectacular) in its very limited release. It probably needs to break out a bit for Streep to really make a showing for best actress.

And, just to beat a largely-dead horse: Extremely Loud this weekend has almost precisely the same gross and per-screen as A Separation. Given that the former features two of Hollywood's biggest stars and is playing in NY & LA's largest houses, it's an embarrassment that it can't top a subtitled effort in much smaller venues.

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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jan 06, 2012 10:58 am

Another movie year ends. From what I have read, this year’s box-office saw the lowest attendance in 16 years. There were certainly some surprise box-office bombs, and a few surprise hits. Overall, I was struck by how many films aimed at the young male crowd failed. Films filled with action and special effects were not guaranteed success, and 3D will clearly not make a film more successful. Next year sees the ending of some franchises, the beginning of others, and the renewal of those that have fallen out of favor with audiences. Remakes, sequels, prequels, reboots, and rip-offs will fill the multi-plexes, but it is the elusive sleeper hits that I wonder about. What will be this year’s THE HELP or BRIDESMAIDS?

My original predictions for the top ten were:
1. Transformers 3 – $375 m
2. The Hangover 2 – $300 m
3. Breaking Dawn – $300 m
4. The Deathly Hallows – $275 m
5. Kung Fu Panda 2 – $275 m
6. Cars 2 – $275 m
7. Pirates Of The Caribbean 4 – $250 m
8. X-Men First Class – $250 m
9. Happy Feet 2 – $250 m
10. Sherlock Holmes 2 – $225 m

Here are the actual top ten:
1. The Deathly Hallows Part 2 -- $381 m
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon -- $352 m
3. Breaking Dawn -- $281 m
4. The Hangover 2 -- $254 m
5. Pirates of the Caribbean 4 -- $241 m
6. Mission Impossible 4 -- $215 m
7. Fast Five -- $209 m
8. Sherlock Holmes 2 -- $192 m
9. Cars 2 -- $191 m
10. Thor -- $181 m

The final gross I was closest to predicting correctly is PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 4 (off by less than $9 m). The final gross I was farthest from predicting correctly was HAPPY FEET 2 (off by about $185 m).
Last edited by rolotomasi99 on Mon Jan 30, 2012 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Jan 03, 2012 12:19 pm

The Original BJ wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote:Things will become more clear once the rest of the guilds announce their nominations. It will not determine the chances for EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE since the Producer, Director, and Writer Guilds all ignored THE READER. However, we will at least know what films will be the strongest going into the Oscar nominations.


Oh brother. If all four Guilds completely ignore Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, people are STILL going to be arguing that it's a possible Best Picture bet?

At this rate, when it gets zero Oscar nominations, some are going to argue that it wasn't properly screened in time but still might win trophies based on write-in votes.


Not write-in votes, but I bet it will receive the GRAN TORINO treatment. I have read several places, including this board, that if GRAN TORINO had been released a few weeks earlier or been more aggressively pushed to Academy voters, it would have been nominated for Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, and a few other categories. I know GRAN TORINO won a few precursors so the comparison is not precise, but the whole "the Academy would have loved it if they had seen it early enough" excuse has been used before.

I expect you are correct The Original BJ in assuming this will be said repeatedly by the folks responsible for the Oscar campaign EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE if it is shut-out from nominations. I will just be happy if something superior (DRIVE, THE TREE OF LIFE, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN, etc) is nominated instead.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:26 pm

rolotomasi99 wrote:Things will become more clear once the rest of the guilds announce their nominations. It will not determine the chances for EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE since the Producer, Director, and Writer Guilds all ignored THE READER. However, we will at least know what films will be the strongest going into the Oscar nominations.


Oh brother. If all four Guilds completely ignore Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, people are STILL going to be arguing that it's a possible Best Picture bet?

At this rate, when it gets zero Oscar nominations, some are going to argue that it wasn't properly screened in time but still might win trophies based on write-in votes.

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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:13 pm

Mister Tee wrote:Many a critically acclaimed film has bombed at the Oscars thanks to commercial rejection, and some drearinesses have prevailed, at least in nominations, because they were big hits.


Maybe it is just improper sentence structure, but you seem to be saying there have been films many members of the Academy have really enjoyed but felt they could not nominate because they did not make much money. Likewise, you seem to think there have been films most members of the Academy did not like but nominated anyways because they were huge box-office hits.

The Academy is made up of people. Some like mainstream films, some like art house films, some like both. A film is nominated for Best Picture because enough folks loved the film. When there were only five nominees, the number of people required to love a film in order for it to be nominated for Best Picture was bigger. Now, I am told it does not take that many people to nominate a film for B.P. The box-office numbers or the precursors reflect what certain types of filmgoers enjoy, and the Academy could be feeling the same way. Academy members, though, do not let either one of these factors make up their minds for them.

As for EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, you are right when you say the film has an uphill battle. However, it is worth noting that while it has a low overall score on Rottentomatoes, as of writing this it has a majority of positive scores (28 fresh vs 25 rotten). All the blurbs from the critics who like it write about how it touched them emotionally. That is what makes me think EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE could find a nomination over something brilliant but less emotional. It burns me up to think THE TREE OF LIFE, DRIVE, TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY, SHAME, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN, and other great films could be ignored by the Academy because the 9/11 film made them cry.

Things will become more clear once the rest of the guilds announce their nominations. It will not determine the chances for EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE since the Producer, Director, and Writer Guilds all ignored THE READER. However, we will at least know what films will be the strongest going into the Oscar nominations.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jan 02, 2012 6:36 pm

Here's the data: Pre-nominations, The Reader was at $8.1 million. After it was nominated it earned around $26 million, $11.2 million of which came after Winslet won the Oscar.

As for per weekend (pre-nominations):
Week 1 - $168K; 2 - $92K; 3 - $664K; 4 - $1.6M; 5 - $1.3M; 6 - $1.3M; 7 - $1.5M

For Extremely Loud, it's:
Week 1 - $72K, 2 - $111K

It's still underperforming The Reader.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Jan 02, 2012 5:31 pm

Sonic Youth wrote:
The Original BJ wrote:In addition, it's worth noting a fact that was fairly obscured during the whole Reader/Dark Knight brouhaha, when The Reader was branded some kind of huge box office flop because its grosses paled in comparison to the Batman sequel. The Reader was actually the THIRD highest-grossing of the Best Picture nominees that year, ahead of Milk AND Frost/Nixon (as well as other Oscar candidates like Doubt, Revolutionary Road, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and The Wrestler.)


I hate to give the Extremely Loud proponents any false hope, especially since the rest of your argument is sound, but I have to correct the above. It's true that The Reader ended up with higher box office than those other films you list. But until the nominations were announced, that wasn't the case. It probably had the lowest box office of five nominated films at that time, and most of the other films as well. Once the nominations were announced, its box office fortunes changed.


Noted. Thank you.

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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby Sonic Youth » Mon Jan 02, 2012 5:06 pm

The Original BJ wrote:In addition, it's worth noting a fact that was fairly obscured during the whole Reader/Dark Knight brouhaha, when The Reader was branded some kind of huge box office flop because its grosses paled in comparison to the Batman sequel. The Reader was actually the THIRD highest-grossing of the Best Picture nominees that year, ahead of Milk AND Frost/Nixon (as well as other Oscar candidates like Doubt, Revolutionary Road, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and The Wrestler.)


I hate to give the Extremely Loud proponents any false hope, especially since the rest of your argument is sound, but I have to correct the above. It's true that The Reader ended up with higher box office than those other films you list. But until the nominations were announced, that wasn't the case. It probably had the lowest box office of five nominated films at that time, and most of the other films as well. Once the nominations were announced, its box office fortunes changed.

As I said before, it was the Kate Winslet juggernaut that contributed to the Best Picture/Director noms for The Reader. E. Loud has no such juggernaut of any kind.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:36 pm

I'd also argue that, given all the flack The Reader got several years ago, there are plenty of people in the industry who will likely feel that, when it comes to Stephen Daldry, enough is enough at the moment. I'm sure the guy will be back at some point -- his bland-but-serious sensibilities clearly do appeal to the members of the Academy with more milquetoast taste -- but I don't see why people are going to go out of their way to recognize such a poorly received effort this time around.

In addition, it's worth noting a fact that was fairly obscured during the whole Reader/Dark Knight brouhaha, when The Reader was branded some kind of huge box office flop because its grosses paled in comparison to the Batman sequel. The Reader was actually the THIRD highest-grossing of the Best Picture nominees that year, ahead of Milk AND Frost/Nixon (as well as other Oscar candidates like Doubt, Revolutionary Road, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and The Wrestler.) In contrast, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is likely going to sit WAY down at the bottom on the box-office list for this year's award seekers.

And sorry, rolo, I hate to greenlight the sequel to our whole J. Edgar discussion, but I think you're WAY optimistic about the other nominations that Extremely Loud could receive. Director, Editing, and Sound seem absolutely out of the question to me, and even Adapted Screenplay seems very unlikely given the available alternatives. I just don't see a movie like this bumping off any number of far more qualified candidates in most categories, which makes a Best Picture nod highly unlikely.

Lastly, I'd like to just point out how badly this movie has done with the precursors. Even Nine -- considered a sizable Oscar flop-ola -- scored four Golden Globe nominations including Best Picture AND a SAG Ensemble nod en route to its Oscar exclusion. I just can't think of a single movie that has done as poorly in EVERY area (box office, reviews, precursors) and still managed to get a Best Picture nomination. If someone can find a precedent, I'd be happy to hear the argument.

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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Jan 02, 2012 2:47 pm

rolotomasi99 wrote:The only reason EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE is still in the conversation is because Stephen Daldry is 3-for-3 in the Director category and 2-for-3 in the Best Picture category. Every good run comes to an end (just ask Pixar), but Daldry clearly appeals to the sensibilities of the Academy.

This is what, in baseball, would be known as Small Sample Size -- if a guy starts his career with 20 hits in 50 at bats, you don't assume he's a .400 hitter.

Francis Coppola had every movie he made in the 70s nominated for best picture; he'd have likely had all for directing, as well, except the then-rule prohibited double nomination in 1974. But when One From the Heart came along in 1982, to critical and commercial scorn, no one imagined the film would contend anyway because Coppola's sensibility matched the Academy's.

Daldry's three are likely pure coincidence. Hell, the first one, Billy Elliot, was actually a disappointment, showing up only in director when many thought it would score for best film. The other two were films heavily propelled by both Harvey Weinstein and an ultimately-winning best actress contender. The Reader surprise is the only thing that gives the faintest credibility to the "Oscar loves Daldry" caucus, but there you had a very weak field, where the prime popular contenders for that last spot were from genres (superhero & animated) traditionally disdained by voters, and more Academy-standard alternatives were films whose mediocrity generally matched The Reader. Probably The Reader beat out Doubt or Revolutionary Road for its key spots; big deal.

Extremely Loud sits at 44 on Metacritic -- one point below this year's Twilight film. No one's going to see it. That combination says No Oscar hope to me -- especially in a very competitive director field. I don't get people who cling to this narrative in spite of all indicators.

ON EDIT: And I really don't understand these sentences from Magilla's post: "Oscars have never been about box office as you well know, nor have they always been about reviews. Theyre about the sensibilities of the voters." Hasn't it generally been the case that the sensibilities of the voters have been fairly well in line with commercial/box office performance? Many a critically acclaimed film has bombed at the Oscars thanks to commercial rejection, and some drearinesses have prevailed, at least in nominations, because they were big hits. But I can't think of many films that were both critically and commercially unsuccessful but got major nods anyway because they matched voter sensibilities. Can you give me a few examples?

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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby ITALIANO » Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:49 am

Big Magilla wrote:I can tell you War Horse also plays very well with the older crowds. The old people whose fathers fought in WWI are going ot see it in droves



The producers will be so relieved knowing this.

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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:13 am

Mister Tee wrote:From the three-day weekend grosses, with averages last:

The Iron Lady $221,800 - 4 screens - $55,450
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close WB $106,000 - 6 screens - $17,667

Explain to me again why I have to rate the latter a best picture contender, despite crap reviews and way sub-par earnings?


The only reason EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE is still in the conversation is because Stephen Daldry is 3-for-3 in the Director category and 2-for-3 in the Best Picture category. Every good run comes to an end (just ask Pixar), but Daldry clearly appeals to the sensibilities of the Academy. I, like many, assumed the Academy would never be interested in such obvious Oscar bait as THE READER (beyond Winslet's performance), but they ate it up. Of course, THE READER is about the Holocaust and had Harvey Weinstein behind it, but EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE is about 9/11 and has Scott Rudin behind it. This does not guarantee it a nomination, but in such an uncertain year we cannot completely dismiss it. The film provokes strong reactions in people. They either love it or hate it, but they do not simply forget it. With the new ballot system, a film only needs a handful of number one spots on folks' ballots to be nominated. EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE can be hated by three quarters of the Academy and still be nominated for Best Picture because one quarter of the Academy loved it. What other nominations it could receive I am not sure. The ubiquitous Daldy nomination, maybe screenplay, score seems like a good bet (particularly since Desplat had such a good year), editing and sound are also possible (since we saw last year these awards now go to Best Picture nominees rather than worthy films).

As for THE IRON LADY, we could be seeing another THE BLIND SIDE, with the film receiving a Best Picture nomination based on Streep's performance alone.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 01, 2012 7:39 pm

Mister Tee wrote:From the three-day weekend grosses, with averages last:

The Iron Lady $221,800 - 4 screens - $55,450
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close WB $106,000 - 6 screens - $17,667

Explain to me again why I have to rate the latter a best picture contender, despite crap reviews and way sub-par earnings?


Oscars have never been about box office as you well know, nor have they always been about reviews. Theyre about the sensibilities of the voters.

I have no idea how I will personally feel about the film when I eventually get around to seeing it, but I do know that the ratings responses range from 1 out of 1 to 10 out 10, the latter skewing older which mirrors the Academy membership who will no doubt screen it. The jury is still out on whetehr they will hit the reject button as quickly as rumor has it they did Tree of Life.

The Iron Lady, despite generally tepid reviews is a must-see for a larger spectrum of the audience. Like I've been saying, it's Streep or its not Streep, in which case it will likely be Davis not Williams.

I can tell you War Horse also plays very well with the older crowds. The old people whose fathers fought in WWI are going ot see it in droves and loving it. There are lots of Academy members whose parents and grand-parents also participated in the war for whom the film, despite its cliches, strikes a chord. I'm telling you there is more enthsuiasm for this film than either The Artist or The Descendants.

I am delighted that Tinker Tailor Solider Spy is doing well, which hopefully spills over to the Oscar voters playing their screenrs. It's a lower five possibility and despite what the professional pundits think, I have never counted Gary Oldman out.
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Re: 2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 01, 2012 5:01 pm

From the three-day weekend grosses, with averages last:

The Iron Lady $221,800 - 4 screens - $55,450
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close WB $106,000 - 6 screens - $17,667

Explain to me again why I have to rate the latter a best picture contender, despite crap reviews and way sub-par earnings?

And a few more:

The Artist $1,408,000 - 167 screens - $8,431
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy $1,161,000 - 57 screens - $20,368

The Artist is not living up to its "audiences are falling in love with It" campaign. Yeah, it's fine for a silent B&W French film (though, if it's silent, why would French matter?). But I guarantee the Weinsteins were expecting better.

Meantime Tinker Tailor keeps defying all the "it's too complicated" naysaying. It'll hit a wall eventually, but when?

War Horse recovered from a weakish Tuesday-to-Thursday to hit solid numbers this weekend -- but far from blockbuster, vaulted-into-best-picture-contention grosses.

Dragon Tattoo is going to hit $100 million, but, barring miraculous legs, will not be the commercial juggernaut it needed to be to nab any major Oscar spots beyond actress.

The Descendants will end the holiday over $40 million, on easy pace to hit $50 million without having gone beyond 800 theatres. Searchlight obviously, Weinstein-like, plans on an Oscar run for the fuller expansion. We'll see if that pays off for them.

None of this is bad, but the unusually high grosses achieved by last year's December best picture contenders (Black Swan, True Grit, The Fighter, the King's Speech) are clearly not going to be repeated. The Help, assuming it makes it, will likely be the top grosser among the year's nominated films.


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