Mister Tee wrote:War Horse, still viewed as a top tier shoo-in (notably by Dave Karger at EW), took a substantial drop this week. It's now on pace to just match We Bought a Zoo, a movie no one's talking about in Oscar terms. Whether the film makes it tomorrow at DGA or not, I'm beginning to wonder if it's more Empire of the Sun than Munich.
WAR HORSE is not taking off at the box-office, but I have noticed the imdb rating rise. Before it officially opened, it had a rating of 6.8 from around 500 votes. Now it has a 7.6 from almost 5,000 votes. I think the imdb vote is no more influential on a movie's Best Pictures success than its box-office, but I would say the folks seeing the film are enjoying it. However, from what I heard it is mostly older crowds checking it out. The studio should have sold it as a kids film along the likes of BABE rather than SAVING PRIVATE RYAN for the less popular world war.
Mister Tee wrote:Moreover, last week, War Horse was just about even with Dragon Tattoo. The latter, however, held up exceptionally well, and is now on pace to easily crack $100 milion. If it has any kind of legs, it might end up less an underperformer than it originally appeared. And with nominations from three differemt guilds this week...maybe we've all been too quick to drop it from the best picture pack.
Well, I predicted it would make about $120 m, which it certainly looks like it will do. I am not sure what others were expecting, but considering the subject matter and the foreign setting THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO is doing quite well. I figure the only films from the Producers Guild nominations which might not repeat with the Academy are BRIDESMAIDS and THE IDES OF MARCH. I think this film could certainly have a B.P. nom, along with cinematography, editing, score, sound, screenplay, and maybe actress.
Mister Tee wrote:In a more limited vein: Tinker Tailor went semi-wide this weekend, and didn't hit the wall many have been expecting, grossing over $7000 per in 800+ venues. This is a higher per-screen average than The Artist in only 167 theatres. I think most of us figured Tinker would need award nods to become a commercial success. Doing this well with barely a whimper from critics or early prize groups is pretty amazing -- especially given the rep that you need to be a Mensa candidate to follow the film.
I am so happy about the success of TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY. I too assumed it would be too labyrinthian for even the average art house audience, but it is a much bigger success than anyone could have predicted. I hope the subsequent weeks bring equally strong grosses. I still hope a Best Picture nomination is possible, but at this point it would just be icing on the cake.
Mister Tee wrote:The Artist is holding up well enough, but, truly, for a film assumed to be such a crowd-pleaser, I'd expect bigger crowds. Maybe this'll be a slow-and-steady-wins-the-race case, but, for now, I'd have to guess the Weinsteins are a bit disappointed. And, The Hurt Locker aside, movies that are commercial disappointments don't usually run away with best picture, the way The Artist is supposed to.
I too am surprised at the difficult time THE ARTIST is having catching on with at least art house crowds. I would assume pretty much everyone who sees it is loving it, but the problem is getting them into the theatre in the first place. I doubt this will affect its Oscar chances since Harvey will make sure Academy members are seeing it.
Mister Tee wrote:The Iron Lady is still doing well (though not spectacular) in its very limited release. It probably needs to break out a bit for Streep to really make a showing for best actress.
See I assumed it would be the other way around. I figured once she started winning the Golden Globe and then the Screen Actors Guild award the film would pick up steam, and then it would really find success if she won the Oscar. If Streep does not win any of those awards, THE IRON LADY will probably do about as well as FROST/NIXON.
Mister Tee wrote:And, just to beat a largely-dead horse: Extremely Loud this weekend has almost precisely the same gross and per-screen as A Separation. Given that the former features two of Hollywood's biggest stars and is playing in NY & LA's largest houses, it's an embarrassment that it can't top a subtitled effort in much smaller venues.
I doubt EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE will have much success with the Academy (unless Daldry really does have some magical sway over them), but I would not count out its possible (mild) success at the box-office. It might not be playing well to the metropolitan art house crowds, but it might be able to find an audience in flyover country. Remember THE LOVELY BONES also had a terrible limited run (dropping 61% in its second week), but then expanded to the multiplexes and was able to make $44 m. It was not a hit, but it was not the flop it looked like it might be those first few weekends. It is also based on a popular book which some felt was emotionally manipulative and exploitive. Likewise, perhaps after earlier Best Picture speculation, the film will only earn a single nomination in the Supporting Actor category.