(by OscarGuy » Wed Jun 15, 2011 9:35 am)
How do I track such prognostications? Do I go with ten and not count those I didn't predict? Do I try to predict exactly how many and how many will fit into each? Do I make separate lists for 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10 nominees? How do I track that statistically? How do I figure that into prior year's predictions? Do I predict ten, rank them and then predict that X number will get 5%? It's a colossal pain to try to figure out how to even approach this. For some of you, I'm sure this won't be that big of an issue, but it's just a pain.
I don't understand what the problem is. It's not like you WIN anything if you predict the nominees.
This is a way of saying the ten nominees thing didn't work out like they were hoping. I personally don't have a problem with ten nominees, but rather the years in which they were implemented. If they did ten nominees in 2007 or 2006, we might be looking at fantastic lineups. Or the same dreariness, but I don't wish to revive THAT conversation.
If it's five nominees, we're going to know what they're going to be. Increasing the number to ten caused the same problem. At least there's some degree of suspense come a certain January morning as to just how many movies there's going to be.
I present to you two different scenarios:
GOOD - it works. We get six nominees? Seven? It's a somewhat tighter race and the films' nominations are more...earned, shall we say?
BAD - it doesn't work. Fourteen movies are nominated. It's a hilarious failure and goes down as the year the Oscars truly did not work. Because Transformers 3 was nominated for Best Picture.
...what happens as a result:
BAD - while they can't really acknowledge that the ten movie lineup was a disaster, they can absolutely acknowledge that this was a failure and it will be very easy to go back to five nominees afterwards. Because you can't acknowledge it's a mistake unless it's okay to make a mistake. This will be the kind of mistake they can very easily go back to the status quo from.
GOOD - ...um, maybe the same thing. After this, they may be equally validated in saying WE TRIED A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT THINGS AND IT DIDN'T WORK. Or they keep it. Either way, there is no way of really knowing what is going to be nominated and that is a welcome change of pace.
Does anybody know if less than five movies could be nominated?
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver