I'm a statistical guy when it comes to predicting Best Picture nominees. To me the most important associative nominations to have with a Best Picture nomination are Director, Screenplay and Editing - in that order. I did a little research, and for the 50 years before this year, there were 260 films nominated for Best Picture. Of those 255 were also nominated in at least one of those associated categories. The five films (less than 2% of the total), that did not get at least one of those category nominations were: The Blind Side, Elizabeth, Beauty and the Beast, Taxi Driver and Nicholas and Alexandra. This year three out of nine did not get a director, screenplay or editing nomination. That's a significant difference and I think has something to with the change in voting procedures.
So, my guess for the five films that would have made the Best Picture line-up are: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo (Director, Screenplay and Editing noms.), Midnight in Paris (Director, Screenplay), and Moneyball (Screenplay, Editing). The next four: The Tree of Life (Director), The Help, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, War Horse (None). I think that acting nominations run a distant fourth in determining Best Picture chances. The films that The Help, EL&IC and War Horse bounced from the Best Picture race if those associative nominations count were: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, A Separation, The Ides of March, Bridesmaids, Margin Call (Screenplays) and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Editing). Under last year's system and 10 nominees I'd eliminate War Horse and EL&IC, and add Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Bridesmaids and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. The Help would be the 6th film in 51 years to get in without those other nominations.