Oscar Predictions at Year End

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dbensics
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby dbensics » Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:00 pm

Among this year's most likely leading actor nominees...Clooney, DiCaprio, Pitt, Shannon (men); Close, Davis, Streep, Williams (women)...what do they all have in common?

They're ALL previous nominees for Best Supporting Actor/Actress.

What is the record for most previously nominated in a supporting category among the five Best Actor and Best Actress nominees in a given year?

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Barrybrooks2011 » Fri Dec 30, 2011 3:30 pm

It would be a shame for Plummer to win for such a performance that I don't think was remarkable in what I consider to be a terrible movie. There was nothing about Beginners that I found to be anywhere near Oscar-caliber consideration. His slot should go to Patton Oswalt, Bryan Cranston, or even Stellan Skarsgaard.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:23 am

If there were any justice, 80 year-old Michael Lonsdale would a shoo-in for a supporting actor nod for Of Gods and Men, making it a three way race between octagenerians with Nolte, Branagh and Brooks fighting it out for the remaining slots, but that's not going to happen. One 80 something nominee is a rarity, two is a phenomenon, three is an impossibility.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Reza » Fri Dec 30, 2011 4:52 am

bizarre wrote:I'd say it is a competition between Plummer and Brooks unless von Sydow or Nolte are nominated. Nolte's film is more of a comfortable crowd-pleaser and he's also "due". So is Max von Sydow, and his film is a Frankenstein's monster engineered solely to soak up awards votes. I think Nolte and Plummer would be at a stalemate with Plummer probably winning out ultimately due to the traction he's picked up over the season, but I think von Sydow could handily beat them all.


It would be far more fitting if the Academy votes Max von Sydow an Honorary Oscar next year. His remarkable film career alone would make him a worthy winner of that award.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Dien » Fri Dec 30, 2011 3:53 am

I've been pretty out of it this year in regards to the cinema. Haven't seen or studied much of the contenders this year to give my two-cents. This is mostly because I've been busy with work and partly because the girl I was seeing before I left was not really into movies.

Looking at what we're dealing with this year, I'm not too interested or thrilled about delving into the majority of what's being offered. Maybe my movie-going will fair better in 2012.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby bizarre » Fri Dec 30, 2011 3:41 am

I'd say it is a competition between Plummer and Brooks unless von Sydow or Nolte are nominated. Nolte's film is more of a comfortable crowd-pleaser and he's also "due". So is Max von Sydow, and his film is a Frankenstein's monster engineered solely to soak up awards votes. I think Nolte and Plummer would be at a stalemate with Plummer probably winning out ultimately due to the traction he's picked up over the season, but I think von Sydow could handily beat them all.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Sabin » Fri Dec 30, 2011 3:34 am

Beyond Lauren Bacall being praised mainly for who she is rather than any specific scene in The Mirror Has Two Faces, it was a terribly received film that didn't do very well and was directed by a woman of questionable regard within the industry. Beginners is a well-received small film that will earn Christopher Plummer his second nomination in three years after an incredibly respectable career. Until I see My Week with Marilyn I won't know what to think of Kenneth Branagh's chances, but Christopher Plummer looks like one of the safer choices of a year in flux. His competition though I have no idea about.
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Reza » Fri Dec 30, 2011 2:27 am

OscarGuy wrote:Supporting Actor is coming down to Albert Brooks and Christopher Plummer. What makes me think it may go to Plummer is that he's a well respected actor with no prior recognition from the Academy and although they may feel the same about Brooks, I think Drive is just not the kind of film the Academy can embrace. If Beginners gets a screenplay nomination, Plummer's a serious threat. If it doesn't and Drive ends up with a boat load of nominations, Brooks may end up the benefactor. Of course, a lot depends on who else is nominated at this point.


If it's going to be a competition between Plummer and Brooks, surely there could be no reason to think that Brooks will triumph.......even if Drive gets a shitload of nods, which I don't think it will. On pedigree alone Plummer should win hands down. A friend of mine compared this race to that of 1996 when Bacall, the expected winner, lost to Binoche, saying that Brooks could triumph in the end. I don't think Bacall's career chart can be compared to that of the far more distinguished one of Plummer. Both have Tony's to their credits but Plummer also has two Emmys. Bacall's film career was held in awe more for her association with Bogart than for any actual film performances. Plummer, on the other hand, has many great performances on screen as a lead as well as a supporting player. I think it may be his year although I personally found his film to be mere piffle.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:36 pm

Supporting Actor is coming down to Albert Brooks and Christopher Plummer. What makes me think it may go to Plummer is that he's a well respected actor with no prior recognition from the Academy and although they may feel the same about Brooks, I think Drive is just not the kind of film the Academy can embrace. If Beginners gets a screenplay nomination, Plummer's a serious threat. If it doesn't and Drive ends up with a boat load of nominations, Brooks may end up the benefactor. Of course, a lot depends on who else is nominated at this point.
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby anonymous1980 » Thu Dec 29, 2011 10:53 pm

Let me do my year-end predictions on where the Oscar race is now:

BEST PICTURE
Locks: The Artist, The Descendants.
Good bets: The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris.
Fighting for a spot: Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse.
Possible longshots: Bridesmaids, Drive, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Ides of March, My Week with Marilyn, A Separation.

BEST DIRECTOR
Locks: Michel Hazanavicius.
Good bets: Woody Allen, Alexander Payne, Martin Scorsese.
Fighting for a spot: Terrence Malick, Bennett Miller, Steven Spielberg, Tate Taylor.
Possible longshots: Stephen Daldry, Asghar Farhadi, Nicholas Winding Refn.

BEST ACTOR
Locks: George Clooney, Jean Dujardin, Brad Pitt.
Good bets: None.
Fighting for a spot: Demian Bichir, Leonardo DiCaprio,Michael Fassbender, Ryan Gosling (for either The Ides of March or Drive), Gary Oldman.
Possible longhsots: Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Woody Harrelson, Thomas Horn, Michael Shannon.

BEST ACTRESS
Locks: Viola Davis, Meryl Streep Michelle Williams.
Good bets: Tilda Swinton.
Fighting for a spot: Glenn Close, Rooney Mara, Charlize Theron.
Possible longshots: Olivia Colman, Kirsten Dunst, Felicity Jones, Elizabeth Olsen, Kristen Wiig.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Locks: Christopher Plummer.
Good bets: Kenneth Branagh, Albert Brooks.
Fighting for a spot: Armie Hammer, Jonah Hill, Ben Kingsley, Viggo Mortensen, Nick Nolte, Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life), Max Von Sydow.
Possible longshots: Robert Forster, Tom Hanks, Ezra Miller, John Hawkes, Patton Oswalt, Alan Rickman, Andy Serkis, Corey Stoll.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Locks: Octavia Spencer.
Good bets: Berenice Bejo, Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Fighting for a spot: Melissa McCarthy, Janet McTeer, Vanessa Redgrave, Shaleine Woodley.
Possible longshots: Sandra Bullock, Jessica Chastain (for any of her other performances this year), Jodie Foster, Carey Mulligan, Kate Winslet.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Locks: The Artist.
Good bets: Midnight in Paris.
Fighting for a spot: Beginners, Bridesmaids, 50/50, Margin Call, A Separation, Shame, The Tree of Life, Young Adult.
Possible longshots: Martha Marcy May Marlene, Rango, Win Win.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Locks: The Descendants, Moneyball
Good bets: Hugo.
Fighting for a spot: Drive, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help, The Ides of March, War Horse, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.
Possible longshots: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, My Week with Marilyn, We Need to Talk About Kevin.
Last edited by anonymous1980 on Sat Dec 31, 2011 6:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Sonic Youth » Thu Dec 29, 2011 10:46 pm

Branagh will never be the frontrunner. It's not the sort of performance that wins Oscars. He's entertaining comic relief, but he's merely playing a foil to Michelle Williams and not an actual character. I'm thinking more and more that this is Plummer's Oscar to lose.
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby anonymous1980 » Thu Dec 29, 2011 10:16 pm

The Original BJ wrote: Sure, you can argue (with difficulty, I think) that the HFPA and SAG just didn't see the movie.


I can't speak for SAG but Extremely Loud did in fact screen for the HFPA on time. I think a spokesperson for the Oscar campaign released a statement that they felt the HFPA was "too emotionally shaken to vote for it" or some shit.

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Sabin » Thu Dec 29, 2011 9:07 pm

I don't think they do love The Descendants, but that's largely because I honestly have no idea why it's being given a pass like it has. Picture, Director, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay seem assured, but Best Supporting Actress is the weakest it's been in memory. The fact that we're even talking about Melissa McCarthy as a contender is staggering enough that I think it could actually happen.

Jessica Chastain and Octavia Spencer are the best bets. I see no reason why Berenice Bejo should get in outside of residual enjoyment of The Artist and she's hot. But she's a good bet. It appears that Albert Nobbs is getting seen, and Janet McTeer is apparently the strongest performer in the film. That seems to be the likeliest four. And I suppose Shailene Woodley is in the hunt as well. So that's six performers, but in any other year only Chastain and Spencer would be talked about. If voters like Michael Fassbender enough to nominate him, then Carey Mulligan could certainly get in as well. She's enjoyable in the film, totally naked, and gets to sing an entire song from beginning to end. She's in the club now. She's not a bad bet. I haven't seen Extremely Loud... but nobody seems to be singling out Bullock. There is no evidence that Coriolanus is being watched at all, so that doesn't help Vanessa Redgrave. I think Mulligan may end up being my wild card pick, but it's from an NC-17 film!

I have not seen My Week with Marilyn, but the Weinsteins might find a way to push Kenneth Branagh into semi-front-runner status if Beginners fails to pick up another nomination. Either way, Branagh and Plummer are in. Albert Brooks didn't get a SAG nomination. That is a horrible sign for his film and his chances. He's a prohibitively safe, but if there were more contenders I wouldn't even place him as likely. Warrior bombed pretty hard, but if Nick Nolte finds a way in, it's possible that Tom Hardy becomes the out of nowhere/Edward Norton for American History X choice. I think he's as likely as anybody else. He has enough actor-ly scenes even though the part is pure claptrap. Armie Hammer has to overcome the fact that J. Edgar was not well-received and that he is absolutely crippled by that old age makeup. If the Screen Actor's Guild liked him enough to nominate him, then that's probably enough to give him the nomination he should have gotten for The Social Network. That's four. And then who? Jonah Hill is great in Moneyball, but his upward battle is being Jonah Hill. I don't like those odds regardless of his precursor citations, and he would make my personal shortlist for best supporting performances of the year. I haven't seen A Dangerous Method, but it doesn't seem like anybody is talking about it. Any talk for Patton Oswalt getting in seems to have died, as the film is a lemon and not likely to appeal to voters. Maybe Corey Stall is a better bet than we had imagined. Voters will see Midnight in Paris and everyone that I know who has seen it always says "That guy who played Hemingway was great." Who am I honestly missing here?

This is not a normal year. There are far fewer contenders than usual in every category.
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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby bizarre » Thu Dec 29, 2011 8:43 pm

I'll do Big Magilla's thing.

BEST ACTOR

Sure Bets:
George Clooney ... The Descendants
Jean Dujardin ... The Artist
Brad Pitt ... Moneyball

Maybes:
Leonardo DiCaprio ... J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender ... Shame
Gary Oldman ... Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Michael Shannon ... Take Shelter

Less Likely:
Demian Bichir ... A Better Life
Ryan Gosling ... Drive
Woody Harrelson ... Rampart
Thomas Horn ... Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Also-Rans:
Paul Giamatti ... Win Win
Brendan Gleeson ... The Guard
Joseph Gordon-Levitt ... 50/50
Ryan Gosling ... The Ides of March

-----------

BEST ACTRESS

Sure Bets:
Viola Davis ... The Help
Meryl Streep ... The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams ... My Week with Marilyn

Maybes:
Glenn Close ... Albert Nobbs
Elizabeth Olsen ... Martha Marcy May Marlene
Tilda Swinton ... We Need to Talk About Kevin
Charlize Theron ... Young Adult

Less Likely:
Felicity Jones ... Like Crazy
Rooney Mara ... The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Kristen Wiig ... Bridesmaids

Also-Rans:
Olivia Colman ... Tyrannosaur
Kirsten Dunst ... Melancholia
Keira Knightley ... A Dangerous Method

--------------

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sure Bets:
Albert Brooks ... Drive
Christopher Plummer ... Beginners

Maybes:
Kenneth Branagh ... My Week with Marilyn
Armie Hammer ... J. Edgar
Jonah Hill ... Moneyball
Nick Nolte ... Warrior
Max von Sydow ... Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Less Likely:
John Goodman ... The Artist
Ben Kingsley ... Hugo
Patton Oswalt ... Young Adult
Andy Serkis ... Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Also-Rans:
John Hawkes ... Martha Marcy May Marlene
Viggo Mortensen ... A Dangerous Method
Alan Rickman ... Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Kevin Spacey ... Margin Call
Corey Stoll ... Midnight in Paris
Christoph Waltz ... Carnage

------------------

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sure Bets:
Bérénice Bejo ... The Artist
Octavia Spencer ... The Help
Shailene Woodley ... The Descendants

Maybes:
Jessica Chastain ... Take Shelter
Jessica Chastain ... The Help
Melissa McCarthy ... Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer ... Albert Nobbs
Carey Mulligan ... Shame

Less Likely:
Sandra Bullock ... Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Jessica Chastain ... The Tree of Life
Vanessa Redgrave ... Coriolanus

Also-Rans:
Sareh Bayat ... A Separation
Elle Fanning ... Super 8
Jodie Foster ... Carnage
Judy Greer ... The Descendants
Anjelica Huston ... 50/50
Amy Ryan ... Win Win
Kate Winslet ... Carnage
Evan Rachel Wood ... The Ides of March

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby The Original BJ » Thu Dec 29, 2011 8:36 pm

It's worth noting that The Reader scored FOUR Golden Globe nominations, including Picture, Director, AND Screenplay, in addition to winning Kate Winslet. In other words, even though The Reader's top mentions surprised many of us, it was FAR more apart of that year's race than Extremely Loud is this year. Sure, you can argue (with difficulty, I think) that the HFPA and SAG just didn't see the movie, but even then...the fact that it hasn't placed at any of these precursors puts it at a HUGE disadvantage when placed alongside the films that have managed to gain traction in the race this year.

I said the week I saw Extremely Loud that I would surprised if it became a big Oscar success, unless the movie was a runaway hit. That its lukewarm notices, poor box office, and lack of precursor showing STILL hasn't convinced some it's anything but an extreme dark horse (if that) suggests the power of year-long online hype.


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