PGA Winners

For the films of 2011
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:35 pm

Maybe I'm re-writing 2006, but I never considered Little Miss Sunshine a contender. And especially after it failed to pick up a Best Director nod with the Academy.

The reason I'm more attuned to an Artist win is simply because it has the Harvey backing and we saw what kind of turnaround he did with King's Speech and that film had virtually no critic precursors going for it.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:09 pm

Mister Tee wrote:The Artist does seem the sort of minor film that might be "punished" by being denied best director even while winning best picture. And Scorsese does seem the sort of high-profile director who might win in that situation. But the director/not film winners in recent decades have been from very serious films -- Reds, Born on the 4th of July, Saving Private Ryan, Traffic, The Pianist, Brokeback Mountain. Much as I admire Hugo, I can't shoehorn it into that crew.


So we are looking for a film whose beauty and quality cannot be denied, and whose director is admired enough to win an Oscar. Yet, the heavy subject matter of the film itself keeps it from beating the light-weight crowd pleaser for Best Picture. I would love for THE TREE OF LIFE to be the film to defeat THE ARTIST in the Directing category, but I have this fear THE DESCENDANTS might end up stealing the award from both films.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby ITALIANO » Mon Jan 23, 2012 3:51 pm

Mister Tee wrote: (It, like The Artist, remains unseen by me -- sorry, Italiano, but my wife wants to see those two, and her precarious health has kept us from getting out to them to date)


Ok, I understand then, and I'm sorry.

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Jan 23, 2012 3:24 pm

I had an elaborate response to this thread all ready to post, when a stray finger-stroke wiped every fucking word away. I don't have the time or inclination to redo it all, but here's some of what I'd said, in more or less bullet point format.

I was (I thought obviously) responding to The race is over, which I found ridiculous. Four weeks ago, Extremely Loud was an Oscar juggernaut. Two weeks ago, War Horse was an unquestioned nominee, and Dragon Tattoo dead in the water. Given that much change in a short time, why would anyone declare the race frozen now? I reiterate: pressed today, I'd pick The Artist. If it wins the DGA, double that. But, to repeat the political analogy I referenced...just one week ago, everyone on TV talked about Romney running away with the nomination; now it's anyone's game. Why the rush? Do you folks fly through sex that fast?

I can say, for me, at this point in '05/'06, Crash was a completely implausible best picture winner (I even thought it might miss the directing nod right up to nominations day). So I'm not sure an alternate winner must fall into the "Yeah, I can totally see that" category to be possible. But, asked to cite possible winners -- I note that Hugo went head to head with The Artist at pretty much every guild, and that the non-design-contending The Descendants got every mention it needed. I'd also note that the latter has won major precursors (LAFC, Drama Globe), is likely to trail only The Help (or possibly Dragon Tattoo) in total gross among best picture nominees, and outperformed The Artist this weekend in fewer theatres (despite having been in the market six weeks, where The Artist was on its maiden voyage). Yet people seem to have just "decided" it can't win. Maybe I'd think that, as well, if I'd seen and disliked it. (It, like The Artist, remains unseen by me -- sorry, Italiano, but my wife wants to see those two, and her precarious health has kept us from getting out to them to date) But its profile sure looks like a potential Oscar victor.

The nominations could scuttle that hope --if it misses any of director/supporting actress/editing. I'm willing to wait for tomorrow morning to find that out. I know alot of recent years have turned depressingly predictable in the stretch, and it's possible we'll get a dull batch in the morning -- one that replicates SAG's Close/DiCaprio/Hammer selections. It's also possible Michael Shannon, Carey Mulligan or Pitt in Tree of Life could show up alongside a batch of BAFTA-boosted Tinker Tailor nods. Given the widespread disagreement among critics' groups (both legit and pipsqueak), the number of late-arriving films (analogous to '07, our last year of multiple surprises), and the novelty of "is it 5/6/7/8/9 films?", I think this year offers better than most the potential for the unexpected. Again, we'll talk tomorrow.

The Artist does seem the sort of minor film that might be "punished" by being denied best director even while winning best picture. And Scorsese does seem the sort of high-profile director who might win in that situation. But the director/not film winners in recent decades have been from very serious films -- Reds, Born on the 4th of July, Saving Private Ryan, Traffic, The Pianist, Brokeback Mountain. Much as I admire Hugo, I can't shoehorn it into that crew.

Oh, and, OscarGuy, you're totally rewriting history to say no one thought Little Miss Sunshine could win best pictur in '06. I can recall spirited debates with several here, who insisted that its having won both PGA and SAG made it the clear fvaorite.

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:26 am

I would say that Scorsese has the best chance of any American director of winning this year, but if I were a bettign man I'd place my bet on Hazanavicius.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:15 am

I wouldn't count on Scorsese winning at this point. He may have done well with the precursors, but as Tee will undoubtedly point out, don't bet on the split.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby Reza » Mon Jan 23, 2012 7:10 am

ITALIANO wrote:And of course you haven't answered: if not The Artist, which movie?


If we, sadly, go by the Globes then The Descendants is probably the film that shall win Best Picture if The Artist is ignored (although that seems highly unlikely at this point in time). Scorsese will win his second Oscar this year no matter which film wins the top award.

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby ITALIANO » Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:38 am

Sabin wrote:Remember Shakespeare in Love's Geoffrey Rush's Henslow's comment about "Romance and a bit with a dog?" Ladies and gentlemen, I give you The Artist.

It all comes down to Film Editing. If The Artist (which will receive the most nominations this year) fails to get a Film Editing nomination, then it's over. If on nomination morning it does receive a nomination for Film Editing, then bet the house.



It will be nominated for Film Editing, don't worry.

And of course you haven't answered: if not The Artist, which movie?

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jan 23, 2012 2:26 am

The Artist is not a great film, but it is a good one and is the go-to film for those of us who have been so disappointed by practically everything else out there. I think it will win Best Picture, but I don't know how many otheer awards it will win. Screenplay is definitely up in the air. Director and Actor are strong possibilities, but not givens. Depends a lot on whether voters really, really like Scorsese and Clooney or Pitt or (fingers crossed) Gary Oldman.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Jan 23, 2012 2:01 am

First of all, let me be clear that I think The Artist is going to win Best Picture this February.

Second, let me come to Mister Tee's defense a bit and argue that films that seemed to have far stronger credentials at this point in the race have, ultimately, failed to win the trophy for Best Picture, from Brokeback Mountain to The Social Network to Saving Private Ryan, so to suggest that The Artist is absolutely unstoppable seems slightly myopic to me.

I meant to mention this after the Globes, but didn't have time, but it's worth pointing out that this was a year in which Best Picture (Drama), Best Picture (Comedy), Best Director, and Best Screenplay each went to four different films, and years in which that happens at the Globes tend to produce more unsettled Oscar slates. 2000 saw a very surprising Director upset and a down-to-wire Gladiator/Crouching Tiger/Traffic Best Picture battle. 2002 saw close races in Director, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay further complicated by the late-breaking surge from The Pianist, which hadn't won any Globes. 2006 saw quite a number of upsets across the board, and Babel, The Departed, and Little Miss Sunshine were all fairly popular Best Picture predictions. Only in 2007, in which Oscar pretty much endorsed the Guild's across-the-board choice of No Country for Old Men, did the scattered Globe field NOT prefigure a highly suspenseful Oscars.

Which is to say...if The Artist loses Best Screenplay to Midnight in Paris, Best Director to Hugo, and Best Actor to The Descendants (or Moneyball)...all of which COULD very well happen on Oscar night, I think...would you be willing to bet the house on The Artist as the name of the movie in that final envelope?

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby OscarGuy » Sun Jan 22, 2012 10:40 pm

I don't see The Descendants as the film to sink The Artist. Only The Help could do so at this point. I don't even think that film will get a Best Director nomination. You need to look at both Director and Editing and find films that fill both requirements. Those are the films that will challenge The Artist.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby rolotomasi99 » Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:32 pm

Sabin wrote:Remember Shakespeare in Love's Geoffrey Rush's Henslow's comment about "Romance and a bit with a dog?" Ladies and gentlemen, I give you The Artist.

It all comes down to Film Editing. If The Artist (which will receive the most nominations this year) fails to get a Film Editing nomination, then it's over. If on nomination morning it does receive a nomination for Film Editing, then bet the house.


Great first point! If the film wins I am totally going to point that out to anyone who will listen. :lol:

As for film editing, I doubt THE ARTIST will be snubbed in this area. Its editing was nothing special but good enough to warrant a nomination to bolster its Best Picture win. The film I will be looking out for in the editing category is THE DESCENDANTS. If it is nominated, then it has a fighting chance to upset in Best Picture, but if it is snubbed then THE ARTIST looks unstoppable.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby Sabin » Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:10 pm

Remember Shakespeare in Love's Geoffrey Rush's Henslow's comment about "Romance and a bit with a dog?" Ladies and gentlemen, I give you The Artist.

It all comes down to Film Editing. If The Artist (which will receive the most nominations this year) fails to get a Film Editing nomination, then it's over. If on nomination morning it does receive a nomination for Film Editing, then bet the house.
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Re: PGA Winners

Postby ITALIANO » Sun Jan 22, 2012 8:12 pm

Also, at least in my case it's not a "premature judgement" - it's just about objectively seeing the situation as it is now. There was a moment, last year, when it seemed clear that The Social Network would win Best Picture, and then everything changed. Things may change even this year (though, to be completely honest, I doubt), but now, after all this ocean of precursors, when one says that The Artist won't win Best Picture, he should also give a possible alternative, and explain why. Just this.

I personally felt that The Artist would emerge as the big winner since the New York Critics picked it as their best film, and wrote it here. But of course back then it was too soon to say. Now the situation is, I think, more clear. And it's not only about a clever campaign - both critics and people in the industry obviously love this movie.

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Re: PGA Winners

Postby Okri » Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:23 pm

Mister Tee wrote:
OscarGuy wrote:And the race is over.

Moulin Rouge. The Aviator. Brokeback Mountain. Little Miss Sunshine.

And Romney'll lock up the nomination by winning South Carolina.


Can you be more specific? While I know you get cranky at premature judgements, do you see any other film really getting enough momentum at this point to challenge it?


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