Winner Predictions

For the films of 2011
mojoe92
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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby mojoe92 » Fri Jan 27, 2012 8:03 pm

Big Magilla wrote:
mojoe92 wrote:Octavia wont win. There is no way with the fast ball nomination McCarthy got. Octavia's nomination is along the line's of Karen Black's in 1970. Everyone had her locked in, she won the Golden Globe, she won all the critics awards. Oscar night came up and bam Helen Hayes came from no where and took it. Melissa is this year's Helen Hayes. And the only one in the category ( besides Jessica Chastain, who I might add was more memorable in The Help than Octavia was) who deserves it. Janet McTeer, Bernice Bejo, definitely wont win. I would love to see Jessica Chastain win over Octavia in a heartbeat BUT, it will come down to Melissa McCarthy and Octavia Spencer. Melissa for the gold though


I don't know whether you were dropped on your head as infant or bumped it on the overhead compartment of an airplane or you just like playing with us, but while Karen Black and Sally Kellerman both gave great precursor award-winning performances, Helen Hayes did not come up from nowhere. The First Lady of the American Theatre, as much admired for her charitable work as for her acting, was to acting what Eleanor Roosevelt was to politics, one of the most beloved people in the world for decades and her film was one of the year's biggest box office hits. Her over-the-top performance delighed nearly everyone. In addition, a win for her meant setting a new record - something Academy memebrs always seem ready to do - i.e. she would become the record-holder for most years between wins - 38. Fari or not, her resurrected screen career at the age of 70 made her far and away an unbeatable sentimental favorite. And unlike many other Oscar nominees she did not campaign for the award. She didn't even attend the ceremony because she had a prior commitment to perform Long Day's Journey Into Night at Catholic University in Washington, D.C. The only thing Melissa Mccarthy has in common with Helen Hayes is height. McCarthy is 5'2'', Hayes was 5'.


Came out of nowhere that year with her nomination and win. I know who Helen Hayes is. Just like Eva la Galienne came out of nowhere with her nomination in 1980 for Resurrection. Both of them are ladies of the theatre. Think outside the box

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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby ksrymy » Fri Jan 27, 2012 1:14 pm

Bog wrote:
mojoe92 wrote:Best Picture: The Tree of Life
Best Director: Terrance Mallick
Best Actress: Michelle Williams- My Week With Marilyn
Best Actor: Demian Bichir- A Better Life
Supporting Actress: Melissa McCarthy- Bridesmaides
Supporting Actor: Nick Nolte-Warrior
Animated- Chico & Rita
Art Direction- Harry Potter 7
Cinematography- The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Costume Design- Jane Eyre
Film Editing- The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Make-Up- Albert Nobbs
Music- The Artist
Sound Editing- The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Sound Mixing- The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Visual Effects- Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Writing ( Adapted) - The Ides of March
Writing ( Original) - Bridesmaides


Well I don't know what this is exactly...but I think a very strong argument could be made you'd be 0/18 with those predictions...


The Artist will definitely win for music as much as I hate to agree with the resident troll.
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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Jan 27, 2012 10:40 am

mojoe92 wrote:Octavia wont win. There is no way with the fast ball nomination McCarthy got. Octavia's nomination is along the line's of Karen Black's in 1970. Everyone had her locked in, she won the Golden Globe, she won all the critics awards. Oscar night came up and bam Helen Hayes came from no where and took it. Melissa is this year's Helen Hayes. And the only one in the category ( besides Jessica Chastain, who I might add was more memorable in The Help than Octavia was) who deserves it. Janet McTeer, Bernice Bejo, definitely wont win. I would love to see Jessica Chastain win over Octavia in a heartbeat BUT, it will come down to Melissa McCarthy and Octavia Spencer. Melissa for the gold though


I don't know whether you were dropped on your head as infant or bumped it on the overhead compartment of an airplane or you just like playing with us, but while Karen Black and Sally Kellerman both gave great precursor award-winning performances, Helen Hayes did not come up from nowhere. The First Lady of the American Theatre, as much admired for her charitable work as for her acting, was to acting what Eleanor Roosevelt was to politics, one of the most beloved people in the world for decades and her film was one of the year's biggest box office hits. Her over-the-top performance delighed nearly everyone. In addition, a win for her meant setting a new record - something Academy memebrs always seem ready to do - i.e. she would become the record-holder for most years between wins - 38. Fari or not, her resurrected screen career at the age of 70 made her far and away an unbeatable sentimental favorite. And unlike many other Oscar nominees she did not campaign for the award. She didn't even attend the ceremony because she had a prior commitment to perform Long Day's Journey Into Night at Catholic University in Washington, D.C. The only thing Melissa Mccarthy has in common with Helen Hayes is height. McCarthy is 5'2'', Hayes was 5'.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby Bog » Fri Jan 27, 2012 9:32 am

mojoe92 wrote:Best Picture: The Tree of Life
Best Director: Terrance Mallick
Best Actress: Michelle Williams- My Week With Marilyn
Best Actor: Demian Bichir- A Better Life
Supporting Actress: Melissa McCarthy- Bridesmaides
Supporting Actor: Nick Nolte-Warrior
Animated- Chico & Rita
Art Direction- Harry Potter 7
Cinematography- The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Costume Design- Jane Eyre
Film Editing- The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Make-Up- Albert Nobbs
Music- The Artist
Sound Editing- The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Sound Mixing- The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Visual Effects- Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Writing ( Adapted) - The Ides of March
Writing ( Original) - Bridesmaides


Well I don't know what this is exactly...but I think a very strong argument could be made you'd be 0/18 with those predictions...

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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby ITALIANO » Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:53 am

mojoe92 wrote:
ITALIANO wrote:BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The only category which we don't even have to discuss. Octavia Spencer will get more votes than the other four put together. Ah, if only surprise still happened today, like in the good old times..!


Octavia wont win.




Good to know - as I said, I like surprises, and this for me would be a big surprise. I'll even admit that, if there must be an upset in this category (but I doubt) it can only come from McCarthy. I understand less the Big Magilla-like comparison with Black and Hayes, but of course that's because I'm famously not very intelligent.

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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby mojoe92 » Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:19 am

This is the situation now. Don't forget that I still haven't seen most of the nominated movies - they will open in Italy in the next few weeks - and seeing the movies helps alot. Plus, things could (only slightly, in some cases) change when the Guilds announce their winners. Anyway, this is where we are today:

BEST PICTURE
I was desperately asking anyone here for a possible alternative to The Artist in this category - a title, just a title. And, like in Sicily when journalists go around and ask about the Mafia, I only got silence, and people looking elsewhere. Now the Academy has given me an answer: Hugo. The Descendants isn't out still, I know: it got very few nominations but those are key nominations... but it didn't get Best Supporting Actress, which would have been a sign of love, and not just respect, and I find difficult to believe that it can win Best Director - which doesn't prevent a Best Picture win, of course, but makes it less probable. It would get Picture, Actor and Adapted Screenplay: in theory it's possible, and it will obtain the votes of those who like family dramas better than movies-about-movies, but only after I see it I will have a clear idea about its chances. Hugo is the most nominated movie of the year and the work of an admired (more than beloved) director. It has the technical branches behind it, but not the powerful Actors branch. So I'd say that yes, we definitely have an alternative here, but not an extremely convincing one. The Artist is still the movie to beat (I know, Mister Tee, it's foreign, it's silent, it's in black and white... but don't you think that at this point, with ten nominations, it doesn't matter anymore? Its "weirdness", rather than an obstacle, is what makes it stand out from the crowd) and I think it will win.

BEST DIRECTOR
In theory, I tend to avoid predicting Picture/Director splits, unless I see strong signals that it can happen, and let's face it: anyone who had the courage to direct a silent movie in 2011 will get many, many votes. It's also true, though, that it's here, more than in Best Picture, that Hugo could win over The Artist, if only because Scorsese is THE American director, not just "an" American director. And if he hadn't won before, and recently, I'd say it could happen. But for the moment I still think that Best Picture and Best Director will go to the same movie.

BEST ACTOR
The most interesting Acting category, with three possible winners - Clooney, Pitt, Dujardin - with more or less (though for different reasons) the same chances of winning. I'm not even sure that the SAG will helps us much here - Clooney, for example, has never won there, but already has an Oscar.

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis doesn't have anything to do in The Help except looking noble and mistreated, but as we know it's more about the way a role is "perceived" that counts. To be fair, she's been ignored, and rightly so, by most of the precursors, but the Academy is a huge group, with an often populistic approach - it fully represents America, both in its good and in its bad sides, and it knows it, and it's even a bit proud of it. Plus, deep inside and probably unconsciously I'm sure that they REALLY feel that giving an Oscar to an overweight black actress will convince God to forgive America for its slavery, its racism, its Ku-Klux-Klan, etc. If there weren't another category where they will certainly honor an actress of this kind, Davis would definitely triumph here. Spencer's Oscar could damage Davis's chances - I know that I sound cynical and not politically correct, but it's the truth. And then there's Meryl Streep - will guilt feelings be stronger than the by-now overdue tribute to a great actress playing one of the most important women in contemporary history? I hope not and I still want to think that Streep will win - but then I also thought that Streep would have won over Sandra Bullock, whose Blind Side had more than a few things in common with The Help (including the fact - though admittedly it counts less with so many nominees - that both movies are also in the Best Picture category). My prediction? Right now, Streep, but I will know more after I see The Iron Lady this weekend.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Another interesting race - Max Von Sydow's nomination could certainly change things. Not - as I have read - because the three veterans will split votes (leading to Jonah Hill's victory?!), but, more simply, because Von Sydow could be a strong alternative to Christopher Plummer, who otherwise would have easily won. He could still win, and probably will, but Von Sydow isn't just any outsider - we are talking about one of the most admired living actors, if not the most admired, and one, by the way, that while deeply European has acted in many American movies. I can easily imagine many voters - one I'm sure of: Steven Spielberg - picking him because of his amazing career, his charisma, his masterpieces with Ingmar Bergman and even just because Max Von Sydow MUST have an Oscar (or, if you like, the Oscars must have Max Von Sydow). In a year when the two most nominated movies are about the remote past of cinema, Max Von Sydow represents this past. In the end, if Plummer wins, it will be because Von Sydow's movie is really too dreadful - but let's not forget that, unlike Beginners, it's still a Best Picture nominee.

ITALIANO wrote:BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The only category which we don't even have to discuss. Octavia Spencer will get more votes than the other four put together. Ah, if only surprise still happened today, like in the good old times..!


Octavia wont win. There is no way with the fast ball nomination McCarthy got. Octavia's nomination is along the line's of Karen Black's in 1970. Everyone had her locked in, she won the Golden Globe, she won all the critics awards. Oscar night came up and bam Helen Hayes came from no where and took it. Melissa is this year's Helen Hayes. And the only one in the category ( besides Jessica Chastain, who I might add was more memorable in The Help than Octavia was) who deserves it. Janet McTeer, Bernice Bejo, definitely wont win. I would love to see Jessica Chastain win over Octavia in a heartbeat BUT, it will come down to Melissa McCarthy and Octavia Spencer. Melissa for the gold though

mojoe92
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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby mojoe92 » Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:14 am

Best Picture: The Tree of Life
Best Director: Terrance Mallick
Best Actress: Michelle Williams- My Week With Marilyn
Best Actor: Demian Bichir- A Better Life
Supporting Actress: Melissa McCarthy- Bridesmaides
Supporting Actor: Nick Nolte-Warrior
Animated- Chico & Rita
Art Direction- Harry Potter 7
Cinematography- The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Costume Design- Jane Eyre
Film Editing- The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Make-Up- Albert Nobbs
Music- The Artist
Sound Editing- The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Sound Mixing- The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Visual Effects- Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Writing ( Adapted) - The Ides of March
Writing ( Original) - Bridesmaides

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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby Okri » Thu Jan 26, 2012 9:20 pm

bizarre wrote:I agree with Sabin - in a year of many, many horrendous surprises we somehow got one of the best nominations of recent years. A Separation is an almost perfect script.

Too bad Stateside critics didn't wake up for About Elly in 2009. I have Fireworks Wednesday at home now and will see it soon.


About Elly didn't get distribution. Or more accurately, it did, but the company that bought it went bankrupt and the rights are in limbo. I too have Fireworks Wednesday (from the library!) so I look forward to seeing Faradi's work.

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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby bizarre » Thu Jan 26, 2012 4:41 pm

I agree with Sabin - in a year of many, many horrendous surprises we somehow got one of the best nominations of recent years. A Separation is an almost perfect script.

Too bad Stateside critics didn't wake up for About Elly in 2009. I have Fireworks Wednesday at home now and will see it soon.

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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby ksrymy » Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:32 pm

The only prediction I can be 100% on right now is that one of the Rivers ladies will say Sandra Bullock's dress is extremely loud and incredibly close.
"Men get to be a mixture of the charming mannerisms of the women they have known." - F. Scott Fitzgerald

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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby Sabin » Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:28 pm

rolotomasi99 wrote
Imagine if HUGO won Best Picture, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS won Original Screenplay, and THE TREE OF LIFE won Director. Assuming everyone showed up, I would love to see the picture of Scorsese, Allen, and Malick standing next to each other and holding the Oscars they won that night. That would be a thing of beauty.

If all three of them won, we'd be looking at a picture of Martin Scorsese.
Last edited by Sabin on Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:26 pm

Sabin wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote
Sabin wrote
Best Original Screenplay - Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
...please show up. Just this once.

How did you miss this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8YaMwUumII

Yes, you're right. I've seen that many times. I just want to see Woody Allen win an Oscar. I want to see what that looks like. I don't want to see someone accept on his behalf. I want to see him on the podium with an Oscar and be forced to fucking deal with it.

Asghar Farhadi is the best nominated screenwriter in almost a decade. I have not seen Margin Call yet, but nobody in this lineup is worthy of citation in his company.


I see.

Imagine if HUGO won Best Picture, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS won Original Screenplay, and THE TREE OF LIFE won Director. Assuming everyone showed up, I would love to see the picture of Scorsese, Allen, and Malick standing next to each other and holding the Oscars they won that night. That would be a thing of beauty.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby Sabin » Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:38 pm

rolotomasi99 wrote
Sabin wrote
Best Original Screenplay - Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
...please show up. Just this once.

How did you miss this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8YaMwUumII

Yes, you're right. I've seen that many times. I just want to see Woody Allen win an Oscar. I want to see what that looks like. I don't want to see someone accept on his behalf. I want to see him on the podium with an Oscar and be forced to fucking deal with it.

Asghar Farhadi is the best nominated screenwriter in almost a decade. I have not seen Margin Call yet, but nobody in this lineup is worthy of citation in his company.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby Reza » Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:50 am

Okri wrote:I want to predict A Separation and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy in the screenplay categories. Someone please rationalize this hope.


I endorse your ''dream''.

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Re: Winner Predictions

Postby rolotomasi99 » Wed Jan 25, 2012 9:27 pm

Sabin wrote:Best Original Screenplay - Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
...please show up. Just this once.


How did you miss this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8YaMwUumII
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow


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