For most Oscar voters Best Makeup = Most Makeup = The Hobbit. There's definitely a lot very noticeable makeup on display here, so I think it'll win. The more subtle makeup jobs don't usually beat out the "bigger" jobs. (Unless the "bigger" job is from a movie so universally reviled that it more or less comes with a "Don't Vote Here" sign attached.) I think The Hobbit has a definite leg up here. With Lincoln not nominated, I'm okay with it winning.
Oscar Guy wrote:The orcs have nothing to do with this nomination and what the nomination is for is barely in the original trilogy.
A lot of voters may think the Orcs have something to do with this nomination. Which probably helps the movie's chances in this category, if we're being honest.