OscarGuy wrote:There are too many films in competition this year. Something's going to get left out. However, let's remember that the Academy's Best Picture nomination rules are so unlike anything any other group uses that it's likely we may not have seen an adequate representation of it so far.
Very true. I think the nomination of EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (with virtually zero guild nominations) and the snub of THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (despite nominations from the PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, and ASC) proves the Academy's voting system will surely guarantee a surprise or two every year in Best Picture. On the one hand, it makes thing interesting on nomination day...but it also makes things nerve-wracking. Just when you think a movie has secured enough guild support to be nominated for Best Picture, it gets replaced by something you were certain had no chance of being nominated.
In the past, it would be safe to say THE MASTER and AMOUR had no chance of sneaking into Best Picture given their lack of guild support. However, all it takes is a small but passionate group of voters to push through a smaller film.