Producer's Guild of America

For the films of 2012
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:46 am

OscarGuy wrote:There are too many films in competition this year. Something's going to get left out. However, let's remember that the Academy's Best Picture nomination rules are so unlike anything any other group uses that it's likely we may not have seen an adequate representation of it so far.


Very true. I think the nomination of EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (with virtually zero guild nominations) and the snub of THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (despite nominations from the PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, and ASC) proves the Academy's voting system will surely guarantee a surprise or two every year in Best Picture. On the one hand, it makes thing interesting on nomination day...but it also makes things nerve-wracking. Just when you think a movie has secured enough guild support to be nominated for Best Picture, it gets replaced by something you were certain had no chance of being nominated.

In the past, it would be safe to say THE MASTER and AMOUR had no chance of sneaking into Best Picture given their lack of guild support. However, all it takes is a small but passionate group of voters to push through a smaller film.
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:16 am

There are too many films in competition this year. Something's going to get left out. I'm hopeful it's Beasts, but with it on the PGA list, I don't think that's possible. However, let's remember that the Academy's Best Picture nomination rules are so unlike anything any other group uses that it's likely we may not have seen an adequate representation of it so far.
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Jan 03, 2013 5:07 am

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was always a long shot outside of Best Supporting Actress, but you never know.
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby mlrg » Thu Jan 03, 2013 4:41 am

Sabin wrote:Life-support is still alive! I wonder how many nominations The Master will get. It seems like a reasonable bet for Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and Cinematography. That puts it in at six nominations with Best Picture. Is that really going to happen? Probably not. Something's going to fall by the wayside.


I think Phoenix is going to be left out. They will go for Cooper/Day Lewis/Hawkes/Jackman/Washington. Even Amy Adams is not locked.

Big Magilla wrote:Actors love it. The film has gotten unanimous rave reviews even from critics who generally despise Haneke. It's definitely a player. I think it will be nominated, but I wouldn't bet on it.


As much as I think Amour is the best film of 2012, I wouldn’t bet on it either. And I’ve read in several places that is was saved by the Foreign language nomination committee to get in the final short-list.

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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby Reza » Thu Jan 03, 2013 1:38 am

The Original BJ wrote:Also, bad news for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which seems like the kind of thing they'd go for. (Translation: good news for many of us!)


I don't know why folks here thought this film was a player. Even the talk about Maggie Smith getting a nod for it sounds absurd. Although one never knows with the Academy about this as she may make it if only because her lead role in Quartet will fall through because of ''stiff'' competition in that category.

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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby Sabin » Thu Jan 03, 2013 1:05 am

criddic3 wrote
Sounds like too many "ifs" to me, but it does have a theoretical chance for a pic nomination and an actress win. Personally, I don't see it as Best Picture material, but that doesn't mean the Academy won't.

It'll have to beat out two or three. However, it is absolutely Best Picture material. Or rather, it should be. Amour is probably the most acclaimed feature film of 2012. I don't know if any other film comes close to the level of universal reviews it's received. It's Los Angeles Film Critics Association win should help make it visible.
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby criddic3 » Thu Jan 03, 2013 12:44 am

Sabin wrote:
criddic3 wrote
You really think Amour will be a best pic nominee? The talk I've heard is all about the two leads. Nothing much is said about the film itself outside of that. I think it is likely to stay in Foreign Language Film and maybe Screenplay, along with it's near-expected Best Actress nod.

I don't think it's likely, but it's possible. Michael Haneke has bubbled under the surface Foreign Master visibility for some time now, and while Amour is a rough, rough movie, there might be enough love for it to rank high enough on ballots to push it into the final spot. It also benefited from opening with a larger window than A Separation was afforded last year. I maintain that if A Separation had November to build up momentum it would have cracked the list. Amour isn't as accessible as A Separation, but it's got a shot.

Best Actress this year is weird. Marion Cotillard, Helen Mirren, and Naomi Watts all have Golden Globe and SAG nominations and I don't know if any of them are getting in. What would be even weirder is if Emmanuel Riva (without a Globe or SAG nomination) won over Chastain and Lawrence if her film is actually seen. Not likely, but possible.


Sounds like too many "ifs" to me, but it does have a theoretical chance for a pic nomination and an actress win. Personally, I don't see it as Best Picture material, but that doesn't mean the Academy won't.
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby Sabin » Thu Jan 03, 2013 12:37 am

criddic3 wrote
You really think Amour will be a best pic nominee? The talk I've heard is all about the two leads. Nothing much is said about the film itself outside of that. I think it is likely to stay in Foreign Language Film and maybe Screenplay, along with it's near-expected Best Actress nod.

I don't think it's likely, but it's possible. Michael Haneke has bubbled under the surface Foreign Master visibility for some time now, and while Amour is a rough, rough movie, there might be enough love for it to rank high enough on ballots to push it into the final spot. It also benefited from opening with a larger window than A Separation was afforded last year. I maintain that if A Separation had November to build up momentum it would have cracked the list. Amour isn't as accessible as A Separation, but it's got a shot.

Best Actress this year is weird. Marion Cotillard, Helen Mirren, and Naomi Watts all have Golden Globe and SAG nominations and I don't know if any of them are getting in. What would be even weirder is if Emmanuel Riva (without a Globe or SAG nomination) won over Chastain and Lawrence if her film is actually seen. Not likely, but possible.
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Jan 03, 2013 12:29 am

Actors love it. The film has gotten unanimous rave reviews even from critics who generally despise Haneke. It's definitely a player. I think it will be nominated, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby criddic3 » Thu Jan 03, 2013 12:25 am

Big Magilla wrote:I don't know. It depends on how many films the Academy actually nominates.

Argo; Les MIsérables; Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty are for sure. Silver Linings Playbook is probably going to make it, although if there are only five slots I think it might have a tough time against Amour, which presumably because it's not an American film was ineligible for the PGA. That leaves a lot of scrambling for the other four possible slots with Life of Pi and either The Master or Django Unchained filling the seventh and eighth. Anything could round out a top ten, but they may not get there.


You really think Amour will be a best pic nominee? The talk I've heard is all about the two leads. Nothing much is said about the film itself outside of that. I think it is likely to stay in Foreign Language Film and maybe Screenplay, along with it's near-expected Best Actress nod.
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:39 pm

I don't know. It depends on how many films the Academy actually nominates.

Argo; Les MIsérables; Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty are for sure. Silver Linings Playbook is probably going to make it, although if there are only five slots I think it might have a tough time against Amour, which presumably because it's not an American film was ineligible for the PGA. That leaves a lot of scrambling for the other four possible slots with Life of Pi and either The Master or Django Unchained filling the seventh and eighth. Anything could round out a top ten, but they may not get there.
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby Sabin » Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:44 pm

Life-support is still alive! I wonder how many nominations The Master will get. It seems like a reasonable bet for Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and Cinematography. That puts it in at six nominations with Best Picture. Is that really going to happen? Probably not. Something's going to fall by the wayside.

Beasts is getting in. Enough people love it and they will rank it high on their ballots. Moonrise Kingdom's chances are further solidified as well.
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:14 pm

I don't think The Master is dead, but it is on life-support.

I had hoped not to see Beasts here. A well meaning, but ultimately unworthy film. Skyfall will likely follow the trajectory of Star Trek and Harry Potter. And I think it could be replaced by The Master on final lists.
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby Sabin » Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:12 pm

I still think The Master is getting in if only b/c it'll rank high on individual ballots. Just like The Tree of Life. In the past three years, films that have failed to make the cut include Star Trek, Invictus, The Town, Bridesmaids, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and The Ides of March. These are films that don't really inspire enthusiasm (save for Bridesmaids kinda). The Master just like The Tree of Life (and Extremely Loud...) does.
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Re: Producer's Guild of America

Postby The Original BJ » Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:44 pm

I don't think The Master is any more OFFICIALLY dead than The Tree of Life was last year, which got Picture AND Director Oscar nominations despite missing with both Guilds...

...that said, bad news for The Master, which was a lot more divisive movie than Tree of Life, and which I think will really struggle to get a Best Picture nod.

Also, bad news for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which seems like the kind of thing they'd go for. (Translation: good news for many of us!)

I think Beasts of the Southern Wild really needed this nomination to keep its name in the conversation -- I still feel doubtful about a Best Picture nod, but it makes at least Screenplay seem a decent enough bet.

Moonrise Kingdom keeps chugging along, a stealthy but fairly consistent presence throughout the season. It very much remains in the game for one of those down ballot spots.

I don't really know what to make of all the Guild support for Skyfall, but then I remember Star Trek scored with multiple Guilds and didn't get any major Oscar nods, so I'm still pretty doubtful about its chances beyond techs. (Though, perhaps this does affirm that the movie will likely do solidly down-ballot, where Bond films actually have had a surprisingly bad track record historically.)


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