DGA Nominations

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Okri
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Okri » Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:01 pm

The Original BJ wrote:Is anyone still doubting Life of Pi as a certain Best Picture nominee? Cause I just don't see where it's showing any vulnerability.


You know, rationally I agree. And I'm predicting it to get nominated. But at the same time..... I'm not quite feeling it. I enjoyed the movie enough, but not enough to want to see it with a best picture nomination. It seems like one of those films that could anywhere from three to ten nominations and it wouldn't surprise me.

But, if you asked me to rationalize it, I'd point out that it's the least actor-oriented possible nominee (unless you think Skyfall is a possible best picture nominee. Which would be hilarious) and actors make up the biggest branch. But that's all I got.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Jan 08, 2013 5:35 pm

Mister Tee wrote:Lee Daniels is a good reminder, though, that sometimes the sentimental movie we think will be dropped by the directors comes through -- Lasse Hallstrom/Cider House Rules, Peter Cataneo/Full Monty are others.


It's worth noting, though, that neither Hallstrom nor Cattaneo were DGA (or Globe) nominees. Which is to say, those films weren't primed as big Oscar behemoths that the director's branch could veto, but were more stealth candidates.

AND...in both those years, there WAS a candidate that fit that bill -- The Green Mile and Amistad -- which WAS dumped from Oscar's Director lineup (the latter from Picture as well) despite DGA success.

AND...in both those years, we did get a cool, auteur-y lone director nominee, whether from a film that just missed Best Picture (Being John Malkovich) or from something totally off the radar (The Sweet Hereafter).

I also remember, in '09, a lot of us had trouble coming up with a candidate that could conceivably fill that Lee Daniels spot -- about the best most of us could do was Neil Blomkamp for District 9. This year, Russell, Tarantino, Anderson, and Haneke offer a far more pedigreed list of options, though, as Mister Tee said earlier, that could potentially leave them all on the sidelines.

But yes, we won't know until Thursday what will happen. Although if it's Ang Lee who misses, I think we should make it official that DGA precedent just doesn't apply to him for some reason.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Jan 08, 2013 5:07 pm

Basically, the situation is, we have two groups: those who think Spielberg/Affleck/Bigelow are sure things for best picture/director nominations, with the rest fungible, and those who think it's a foursome of locks with Hooper joining them. We simply won't know till Thursday which group sees the terrain most clearly.

Lee Daniels is a good reminder, though, that sometimes the sentimental movie we think will be dropped by the directors comes through -- Lasse Hallstrom/Cider House Rules, Peter Cataneo/Full Monty are others.

On the other hand, we felt pretty certain Finding Neverland would be bumped, and it was. And I was pretty bullish on Little Miss Sunshine being left out, which wasn't a popular position ahead of time.

And I agree with BJ/dws, that Lincoln has the better shot at leading in total nominations.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby dws1982 » Tue Jan 08, 2013 5:01 pm

Lincoln definitely gets Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Production Design, Score, Makeup. It probably gets Cinematography, Editing, and Costumes. It could get Sound. It looks good for 12-13 nominations.

Les Miserables definitely gets Picture, Supporting Actress, Production Design, Costumes, Sound. It probably gets Song. (That category is always a crapshot though.) It could get Director, Actor, Editing, and Makeup. Anything else (Cinematography, etc.) is probably a deep longshot. It looks like 6-10 nominations, with 11 as the absolute max.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:49 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Of course, we could have a five-for-five line-up because this slate does sound like a Best Picture slate.

I don't have the time to research, but I believe that Dreamgirls is the only film in a very long time to be the year's most nominated film (or at least to have 10 or more nominations) and not a nod for Best Director.


Ah, but I think the question is not whether or not this slate sounds like an Oscar Best Picture slate, but whether or not it sounds like an Oscar DIRECTOR slate. History suggests that something more adventures stands a VERY good shot at cracking the lineup. (Thought you do make a very good point about Lee Daniels.)

Also...as I said a while ago, I would be shocked if Lincoln were not the nomination leader. Even if Les Mis manages to torment me to no end by snagging double digit nods, I STILL think it falls a couple short of Lincoln's haul.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby OscarGuy » Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:41 pm

I almost think Lee Daniels' Precious nomination is more akin to Tom Hooper's. Then, everyone thought that it was Daniels that would be the one dropped by the Academy at nomination time, yet he made it through. I don't know quite what to think and I do think Hooper is more vulnerable than anyone save Lee who is equally vulnerable, but a lot of what I read below was more defensive to suggest why the person they don't want to see nominated won't get in rather than an objective analysis of facts. Of course, we could have a five-for-five line-up because this slate does sound like a Best Picture slate.

I don't have the time to research, but I believe that Dreamgirls is the only film in a very long time to be the year's most nominated film (or at least to have 10 or more nominations) and not a nod for Best Director. Corellation does not equal causation. I'm guardedly optimistic that Hooper will be in the final five, but won't be surprised if he's missing either.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Jan 08, 2013 3:43 pm

I think Lee is the likey Academy pick if Haneke fails to make the cut. I think the other four are solid, but we'll find out in less than 48 hours.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Jan 08, 2013 3:17 pm

Sonic Youth wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:Could well be the five Oscar nominees. I still say Haneke will replace Lee, not Hooper, but who knows.


I admit I said what I said to tweak you a bit, but you may have a point. For all this talk about Les Miserables following the same trajectory as Dreamgirls, Life of Pi might give off a whiff of Cold Mountain. Heavyweight filmmaker takes on a beloved best-seller. Result: good reviews and box office, but it also gives the appearence of a desperate Oscar-grab which is a big turn-off. Maybe Lee is vulnerable. Maybe both are.

Or maybe making parallels between films in different years before we know the outcome is a silly thing to do.


Maybe it has less to do with the films and more to do with the director. After all, the DGA nominated Lee for SENSE AND SENSIBILITY when the Academy did not, and gave the award to him for CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON when the Academy did not. The difference between the DGA and the Academy with Lee does not reach Christopher Nolan levels, but it is possible the DGA just likes Ang Lee more than the Academy.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Greg » Tue Jan 08, 2013 3:16 pm

The Original BJ wrote:Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, and Argo have yet to really see any chink in their armor.


I think Arkin, in a supporting role, being the only likely acting nominee is a chink in Argo's armor.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Sonic Youth » Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:48 pm

Big Magilla wrote:Could well be the five Oscar nominees. I still say Haneke will replace Lee, not Hooper, but who knows.


I admit I said what I said to tweak you a bit, but you may have a point. For all this talk about Les Miserables following the same trajectory as Dreamgirls, Life of Pi might give off a whiff of Cold Mountain. Heavyweight filmmaker takes on a beloved best-seller. Result: good reviews and box office, but it also gives the appearence of a desperate Oscar-grab which is a big turn-off. Maybe Lee is vulnerable. Maybe both are.

Or maybe making parallels between films in different years before we know the outcome is a silly thing to do.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:10 pm

Could well be the five Oscar nominees. I still say Haneke will replace Lee, not Hooper, but who knows.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby nightwingnova » Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:54 pm

glad that Quentin Tarantino is not getting undue love for Django Unchained. his pastiche worked excellently in Kill Bill and Inglourious Basterds. maybe it's because I have not learned to appreciate spaghetti westerns, I found Django Unchained amusing but nothing terribly special. a revenge movie with interesting and even earth-shattering riffs on race - but mostly mildly interesting plot...so the gushing love doesn't register with me.

and it didn't seem that the critics' love matched their voting either..Django did not make the final cut in the year-end awards so far.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:48 pm

This is a pretty standard DGA list -- I'd predicted Hooper, left off Lee (with Russell in his place), assuming the more auteur options (Anderson, Haneke, Tarantino) would have very little shot here.

I, too, still think Hooper misses at the Oscars -- lest we forget, Bill Condon showed up here for Dreamgirls and that didn't suddenly make him the Oscar frontrunner -- but I do have to concede that the movie is continuing to show broad signs of support, and I think that will help it in other categories (I think Jackman's less likely to be the one excluded from Best Actor, for instance.) The movie's strong box office also seems to have wiped away some of the early negativity associated with the film from those reviews.

Is anyone still doubting Life of Pi as a certain Best Picture nominee? Cause I just don't see where it's showing any vulnerability.

Silver Linings, while still a very strong bet for Best Picture, does seem to be showing some weakness here and there, having missed Director and Supporting Actor at the Globes, Director again here. I have a feeling it won't get nominated in all of the categories in which it's contending.

Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, and Argo have yet to really see any chink in their armor.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:47 pm

mlrg wrote:This will not influence Oscar as the polls already closed, but it is possible that the directors branch copied/pasted their ballost for DGA and Oscar

It's not that the DGA influences the Oscars, it's that it reflects it...so, the fact that balloting has closed is inconsequential. The DGA's relevance is that it is a large grouping of industry people that generally falls in line with the taste that also rules at the Oscars. Most of us have already assumed that these five films will be among the best picture nominees, and this confirms that.

The directors' branch of the Academy, however, is substantially different. They're a small group (fewer than 300), as opposed to about 10,000 who vote on these DGA awards (many more TV and commercial directors than feature filmmakers). So, it would be impossible for them to cut and paste these choices; it's not the same people.

The directors' branch will, in the main, echo the strongest best picture candidates. But where they differ, it's usually to toss aside wobbly contenders and, especially, sentimental audience pleasers -- like The Prince of Tides, The Green Mile, Finding Neverland -- in favor of something more critically acclaimed but maybe not as commercial. Like Sonic, I see Les Miserables as falling into that category, and would think the history of the directors' branch argues for them to substitute Anderson, Russell, Tarantino or (one Sonic left out) Haneke in Hooper's place. But we can't know that till Thursday.

The biggest news is probably that Russell's omission means Silver Linings Playbook is not a serious best picture player. Not that anyone but Jeffrey Wells really thought that, but this is a coffin nail.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby mlrg » Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:23 pm

Hooper is doing exactly the same precursor run that Bill Condon did back in 2006 for Dreamgrils. Gets Critic's Choice, misses Golden Globe, gets DGA. Condon also missed BAFTA, which I doubt Hooper will, but I think Hooper will be snubbed on Thursday being replaced by Tarantino.

Then again, the question remains the same. This will not influence Oscar as the polls already closed, but it is possible that the directors branch copied/pasted their ballost for DGA and Oscar

Also, Django's showing in the Guilds is similar to True Grit two years ago


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