SAG Awards

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Re: SAG Predictions

Postby dws1982 » Sat Jan 26, 2013 6:54 pm

Day-Lewis doesn't have anything to worry about. Hathaway probably doesn't either--a turn of events I continue to find inexplicable.

Actress I see as toss-up between Chastain and Lawrence. Normally in a close race I give the edge to the person in the higher-grossing film, but Zero Dark Thirty and Silver Linings Playbook, as of yesterday (when voting ended) had grossed almost the exact same amount, within a million or so dollars of each other. I might go with Lawrence, since her movie has been out there longer than Chastain's, but I don't have any strong feeling one way or the other.

Supporting Actor I see as a free-for-all between the four Oscar nominees. I would probably rate Hoffman least likely of those to win--The Master is the lowest grossing of that group by far, and the least audience friendly. Arkin is the exact type of actor who always gets carried along by his film's momentum but never wins anything. He has a lot of goodwill with me, but if he were to win the SAG (or worse, the Oscar) for his way over-indulged performance in Argo, a lot of that goodwill would evaporate. DeNiro has been away from any type of quality work for so long that I could see some voters wanting to vote for him when they see his name on a ballot, but between him and Jones, I think I'll go with Jones. Jones is in by far the highest-grossing film of the group, and he has an infinitely more substantial character.

Ensemble is tough. Sometimes, it's just another award that a movie wins on its way to the inevitable Best Picture win: The King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country For Old Men, Return of the King, Chicago, American Beauty. Other times, the Best Picture frontrunner gets overlooked in favor of a more traditional ensemble: The Artist losing to The Help; Brokeback Mountain losing to Crash (of course that Oscar race ended in a shocking upset); A Beautiful Mind losing to Gosford Park; Saving Private Ryan losing to Shakespeare in Love (another Oscar upset, although less of one than Crash); Titanic losing to The Full Monty. And then you've got a third type of year, where there's this massive multi-film pileup, and no one's quite sure what's going to happen until Oscar night: 2009, 2006, 2004, 2000. In those years, the SAG award generally goes to the most traditional ensemble: Inglourious Basterds is a borderline case, but I'd argue that with no real protagonist, it fit that mold more than any of the other nominees, except for maybe the widely-reviled Nine; Little Miss Sunshine is an odd one, because all of the nominees were fairly traditional ensembles, but it was the bigger crowdpleaser; Sideways was all about the interplay between those four performers; Traffic was the most popular and most acclaimed of that resurgence of ensemble, hyperlink-narrative films.

So, the question is, what kind of year is this? The tough thing is that we probably won't know until, at the earliest, tomorrow night when the award is announced. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel may be the most traditional ensemble, but with no Best Picture nomination, it can be ruled out easily. (The Birdcage winning ensemble was a one-time fluke that I don't expect to see repeated again. Certainly not in the age of >5 Best Picture nominees.) You could argue for Lincoln under at least two criteria: as a Best Picture frontrunner, or as a traditional ensemble--despite the fact that it's called Lincoln, it's very much an ensemble piece. If Argo hadn't gotten the Oscar-nomination smackdown, I would argue for it as the favorite here as a Best Picture frontrunner. (I also think that Best Director snub is now leading people to absurdly overrate the film, but that's another post.) I guess you could make the "traditional ensemble" argument for it since it cuts between stories in Washington, LA, and Iran, but I don't quite see it. It's a popular movie with a big cast though. Silver Linings Playbook--these types of movies (focusing a family, or a small group of friends) get nominated quite a lot. They don't tend to win very often, although I could see it coming out on top in the pileup. The closest analogy to this wining would probably be Sideways, which came out on top of that three-film pileup, but was also a more ensemble-based project than Silver Linings.I don't know what to think about Les Miserables. In terms of box-office it's only behind Lincoln out of this lineup, but it's not remotely a Best Picture frontrunner, and it's not a traditional ensemble or an ensemble that's been widely praised.

So I'm between Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, and Lincoln...kind of sort of leaning towards Lincoln, although the other two are every bit as likely to win.

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SAG Awards

Postby Big Magilla » Sat Jan 26, 2013 5:11 pm

OK, I have a little more time than I did the other day to expound on my SAG predictions as noted on Cinemasight.

Best Female Actress in a Supporting Role

SAG has a history of rewarding actors who've won Oscars in the years before they bestowed competitive awards of their own, so a win for Sally Field or Maggie Smith would not be surprising, but there's no reason to think that Anne Hathaway's inevitable run toward an Oscar will be broken. Prediction: Hathaway. Runner-up: Field, with Smith winning the TV award for Downton Abbey.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Lots of earlier Oscar winners here, but I think Tommy Lee Jones has the edge. Prediction: Jones. Runner-up: Alan Arkin based on the Johnny-come lately awards run of Argo.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain's long climb toward recognition probably has more traction than Jennifer Lawrence's quick assent with this group, especially after last week's lame putdown of her Oscar competition on Saturday Night Live, but either could win. Prediction: Chastain. Runner-up: Lawrence.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

Daniel Day-Lewis, Daniel Day-Lewis or Daniel Day-Lewis. If there's a runner-up, it's probably Hugh Jackman. Prediction: Day-Lewis. Runner-up: Jackman.

Best Cast

This is supposed to be an award for how well the cast works together as opposed to what they think is the best film, however with all the nominees working smoothly together, the choice is apt to be an attempt by the voters to influence the Oscar race. A win for Lincoln, the presumed Oscar front-runner could signal that the Oscar race is over. A win for anything else could signify that the Oscar race is still wide open. Prediction: Argo. Runner-up: Les Misérables .

Best Stunt Cast

Could really be anything. I took a stab a in the dark and came up with this. Prediction: Les Misérables. Runner-up: Skyfall.
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