2013 Box-Office

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Re: 2013 Box-Office

Postby MovieWes » Sat Mar 16, 2013 10:15 am

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug has the best shot, followed by Iron Man 3 and Man of Steel. He says MOS is an original movie as if there's never been a Superman movie before. I realize this is a reboot, but the character is one of the most recognizable in the world and it's coming off the heels of another recent billion dollar grossing superhero movie from producer Christopher Nolan.
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Re: 2013 Box-Office

Postby Franz Ferdinand » Fri Mar 15, 2013 12:46 am

Which 2013 Movies Could Earn $1 Billion?
by Ray Subers
March 13, 2013

At the beginning of 2008, only three movies—Titanic, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest—had earned over $1 billion worldwide. Flash forward five years to early 2013, and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey has just recently become the 15th title to reach that illustrious milestone. With the addition of 3D ticket pricing and the rapid expansion of the foreign market in areas like China and Russia, reaching $1 billion definitely isn't all that it used to be. Still, it hasn't lost all its prestige, and hitting that mark remains an undeniable sign that a movie is a global sensation.

Four 2012 movies reached that coveted level, though only one (Skyfall) was a major surprise. 2013, on the other hand, doesn't have as many obvious choices, and it's therefore unlikely we'll once again see four $1 billion titles. Excluding Jurassic Park—which will obviously pass $1 billion thanks to its 3D re-release—here's a look at the 2013 movies that could ultimately reach $1 billion, along with what we think the odds are of that happening.

Iron Man 3 (May)

Instead of viewing Iron Man 3 as a sequel to Iron Man 2 ($624 million), it's more beneficial to view it as a spin-off featuring the most-popular character from The Avengers (sorry, Hulk, but Tony Stark/Iron Man is still easily the most widely-liked member of the team). That movie ranks third all-time with over $1.5 billion worldwide; if Iron Man 3's drop from The Avengers is in line with that of recent spin-offs X-Men Origins: Wolverine and Puss in Boots, it will absolutely earn over $1 billion. Odds: 60%

Star Trek Into Darkness (May)

Star Trek Into Darkness looks like a massive blockbuster, but it's coming off a 2009 predecessor that only managed to earn $128 million overseas. Into Darkness is clearly designed with a foreign audience in mind—director J.J. Abrams was mandated to make it 3D, and it appears like a large portion of the movie is set in futuristic London—and four years of positive word-of-mouth on the 2009 movie will significantly increase demand for this one. Still, it would need to get past $600 million overseas, which would be an unprecedented overseas jump. Odds: 5%

Fast & Furious 6 (May)

2011's Fast Five put the Fast & Furious franchise in a great position: not only was it by-far the highest-grossing entry yet with $626 million worldwide, but it was also a major crowd-pleaser that featured the kind of post-credits twist that has had fans chomping at the bit for the past two years. The previews for Fast & Furious 6 deliver all the car-related destruction these fans expect, while also presenting a new story and new location (London/Europe). Still, it's entirely possible that this series is nearing its ceiling, and a 60 percent increase worldwide is hard to fathom. Odds: 25%

Monsters University (June)

Monsters University is the third Disney/Pixar sequel in the past four Summers; the first one, Toy Story 3, is the highest-grossing animated movie ever with $1.06 billion, while Cars 2 underwhelmed a bit with $560 million. Monsters, Inc. is a very well-liked Pixar movie, but isn't put on quite the same pedestal as the first two Toy Story movies. Also, instead of actually moving the story forward, Disney/Pixar opted to go the prequel route, which means the story itself won't be nearly as essential for audiences. If Monsters University turns out to be a return to greatness, then $1 billion is a possibility, but don't count on it. Odds: 15%

Despicable Me 2 (July)

In 2010, Despicable Me introduced audiences to the Minions and earned over $543 million worldwide. As well-liked as it is, though, history suggests it has no chance of reaching $1 billion: in fact, using other recent closely-timed animated sequels as comparable titles, it's unlikely that Despicable Me 2 makes it past $700 million. Odds: 10%

Thor: The Dark World (November)

Coming off The Avengers, the second Thor movie will clearly do better business than the first ($449 million). Still, the title character isn't nearly as popular as Iron Man, and so it's doubtful that it holds on to more than half of The Avengers's $1.5 billion. Odds: 20%

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (November)

At the domestic box office, The Hunger Games earned an incredible $408 million, which is more than any of the Harry Potter or Twilight movies. Unfortunately, it was a modest overseas performer with $283.2 million. In much the same way as the Twilight franchise experienced a huge overseas bump from the first to second movie, though, so should The Hunger Games, and a foreign total for the sequel in the realm of $500 million wouldn't be surprising. That still makes $1 billion tough to reach, but if a non-3D movie is going to do it in 2013, it's going to be Catching Fire. Odds: 40%

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (December)

Each Lord of the Rings movie earned more than its predecessor, and by that logic The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should be able to top An Unexpected Journey $1.02 billion. No matter how vocal the fans are, though, it has become abundantly clear that An Unexpected Journey isn't as well-liked as the original movies. Therefore, it's going to take an impressive marketing effort to get Smaug to avoid the modest three percent dip that would put it below $1 billion. Odds: 50%

"Original" Movies

Only three "original" movies—as in, not sequels or prequels—have ever earned $1 billion worldwide. Two of those movies were made by James Cameron (Avatar and Titanic), and the third (Alice in Wonderland) owes at least a tiny amount of its box office to goodwill generated by Avatar a few months earlier. All of this is to say that the odds are extremely low that an "original" 2013 movie reaches $1 billion.

Oz The Great and Powerful had a miniscule chance of performing similar to Alice in Wonderland, though any and all hope was squashed when it opened considerably lower than Alice on an overseas basis this past weekend (around 50 percent lower across major markets).

With Zack Snyder's stylish direction, guidance from Christopher Nolan, and the addition of 3D pricing, June's Man of Steel has a lot going for it. Still, the movie would need to earn nearly three times as much as 2006's Superman Returns, which is a near impossibility.

Johnny Depp has starred in three $1 billion movies (a record), and Lone Ranger's marketing has been pushing the Pirates of the Caribbean connection. Unfortunately, its previews have been met with a lukewarm reception so far, and Westerns are a notoriously tough sell overseas.

Finally, with its skyscraper-sized robots going up against giant monsters, July's Pacific Rim is sure to do great business in Asia at least. The rest of the world, though, is another story, and coming anywhere close to $1 billion is a stretch.

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Re: 2013 Box-Office

Postby MovieWes » Sat Mar 09, 2013 12:04 pm

‘Oz’ Wizards For Big $23.5 Million Friday And Tracks 2013′s First Huge $74M Weekend
By NIKKI FINKE, Editor in Chief | Saturday March 9, 2013 @ 1:30am PST

SATURDAY 1:30 PM, 4TH UPDATE: Refining numbers overnight. Disney‘s Oz The Great And Powerful looks like $23.5M for Friday. That figure includes $2 million in Thursday pre-midnights and Friday post-midnights. Based on first-day trends that puts the opening weekend around $70M-$74M. The $215M-costing San Raimi-directed fantasy family fare will by far be the biggest domestic film debut of what has been a disappointing 2013 start for Hollywood pics. And it isn’t even a holiday weekend. Revews have been lukewarm but a “B+” CinemaScore from audiences should help word of mouth for Saturday’s all-important family bump.

FRIDAY, 2ND UPDATE: Here is another update for you. Disney‘s Oz The Great And Powerful is on its way to a big opening with $2 million in Thursday pre-midnights and Friday post-midnights, according to my sources. I’m hearing the fantasy family fare is having “great” early matinees ahead of Universal’s megahit toon Lorax. Increasingly, the old terminology of midnight openings also means Thursday night shows, and Oz began screenings at 9 PM in select theaters. The Sam Raimi-directed prequel to the classic Wizard Of Oz story made 60% of its pre- and post-midnight money in 3D and 40% in 2D. By contrast, Disney’s 2010 blockblusterAlice In Wonderland did $3.9M in midnights – but it also was one of Hollywood’s first 3D megapics back then. The PG-rated Oz opens today in 3,912 theaters in North America and releases day and date in most markets internationally this weekend. It began with Russia, Germany, Australia, Korea and Italy on Thursday, and then today expanded into a total 46 territories, including the UK, Spain, Mexico, Japan and Brazil.

EXCLUSIVE MONDAY, MARCH 4: After this past weekend’s Jack The Giant Slayer bombed for Warner Bros, Wall Street is understandably nervous about another movie costing $200 million and opening the very next Friday. But the business media morons who keep writing headlines like “Oz The Great And Powerful Could Be Disney’s Next John Carter Flop” need to get a clue. Granted, tracking is less and less an accurate indicator of actual theatrical performance. But my insiders including rival studios are now projecting a sweet $80+ million first weekend for this March tentpole. (Whereas John Carter, which also cost $200M, only opened to $30.1M and made just $73M domestically all-in.) That opening by far would be the biggest domestic film debut of what has been a disappointing 2013 start for Hollywood pics. It also cements director Sam Raimi as the real deal when it comes to helming box office blockbusters. (After steering the original Spider-Man trilogy from 2002 through 2007, he has made mostly small and modest movies until this budget buster starring Spidey frenemy James Franco.) After months of bad buzz behind the film, Disney now is confident Oz was a risk worth taking – but is taking no chances either.

The studio has ensured its TV ads for Oz are omnipresent as part of a $100M marketing spend and mirror the colorful chaos of those for its 2010 Alice In Wonderland mega-hit. Oz also is releasing on the same weekend Alice did. That Tim Burton pic offered one of the first truly rich 3D experiences and scored a $116 million domestic debut and went on to earn $1 billion worldwide, making 2/3s of its money overseas. indeed international grosses for this weekend’s wizards and witches will be key – and I must warn that the Land Of Oz is not the globally familiar place in literature Wonderland was and still is. As for Oz opening domestically, ”I think it will have an ’8′ in front of it,” an insider tells me. “We had a lot of media this weekend.” Not only is Oz produced by Alice In Wonderland‘s Joe Roth, but it also used the same visual effects pro and production designer Robert Stromberg, who recently noted that ”Tim was going for a darker film, and Sam was going for a brighter film. That’s the biggest difference.” Disney is playing the pic in traditional 2D, as well as Disney Digital 3D, RealD 3D and IMAX 3D formats. Development spanned no less than 3 Disney studio chiefs - Dick Cook, Rich Ross, and now Alan Horn. The script, written by Mitchell Kapner and David Lindsay-Abaire, is inspired by L. Frank Baum’s 1900 novel The Wonderful Wizard of Oz and also the prequel to the 1939 classic film The Wizard of Oz. The story takes place 25 years before Dorothy, the Lion, the Scarecrow or the Tin Man were there. Instead this tale tells how the Wizard got to the Land Of Oz. Since the 1950s, Disney has owned the rights to Baum’s 13 Oz sequels. If tracking is accurate and international is big, then this is a new Disney franchise spinning off not just films but mucho merchandising and park attractions for years to come.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)

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2013 Box-Office

Postby MovieWes » Mon Jan 21, 2013 8:03 pm

My predictions...

1. Man of Steel - $440 million
2. Star Trek Into Darkness - $420 million
3. Iron Man 3 - $410 million
4. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $380 million
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - $330 million
6. Monsters University - $290 million
7. Oz, the Great and Powerful - $285 million
8. Thor: The Dark World - $270 million
9. Despicable Me 2 - $265 million
10. Fast & Furious 6 - $230 million
11. Anchorman: The Legend Continues - $210 million
12. The Hangover Part III - $200 million
13. Ender's Game - $200 million
14. The Croods - $190 million
15. Pacific Rim - $180 million
16. Frozen - $175 million
17. The Wolverine - $170 million
18. Grown Ups 2 - $165 million
19. 300: Rise of an Empire- $160 million
20. The Lone Ranger - $150 million
21. Oblivion - $150 million
22. Elysium - $150 million
23. A Good Day to Die Hard - $145 million
24. The Internship - $140 million
25. The Smurfs 2 - $140 million
26. The Wolf of Wall Street - $140 million
27. After Earth - $135 million
28. White House Down - $135 million
29. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 - $130 million
30. Identity Thief - $130 million
31. Jack Ryan - $125 million
32. G.I. Joe: Retaliation - $120 million
33. Epic - $115 million
34. Mr. Peabody and Sherman - $110 million
35. RED 2 - $105 million
36. World War Z - $100 million

Other possibilities at crossing the $100 million mark, but at this point still a big question mark:

Foxcatcher - It has two big-name stars (Channing Tatum and Steve Carrell), plus Bennett Miller's coming off of Moneyball, which was a modest hit. Like Moneyball, this is another true sports story. However, unlike Moneyball, the subject matter is very dark and neither Tatum nor Carrell have the star-power of Brad Pitt.

Fruitvale - It could be a sleeper a la Slumdog Millionaire, but its release date in July could prevent it from happening. Its chances would be a lot better if it were released closer to Oscar season.

Gravity - I think it's pretty unlikely to top $100 million, but the star-power of George Clooney and Sandra Bullock could push it to the upper $80 million range. If it's as good as the buzz indicates it is, then it could potentially cross the mark.

The Great Gatsby - Usually if a movie has a star studded cast and a huge marketing push like Gatsby does, then it'd be a near-lock to gross over $100 million. However, Baz Luhrmann movies are usually very flamboyantly weird and don't really have a very wide appeal. On the one hand, Gatsby the novel has been around for almost a century, so it is a known commodity with many fans. On the other hand, this is the fourth time it's been brought to the big screen. The star power should push it to over $70 million, but the limited appeal of Baz Luhrmann and the fact that its release date is sandwiched between Iron Man 3 and Star Trek Into Darkness could hinder it.
Last edited by MovieWes on Wed Apr 17, 2013 12:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)


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